Well, in a recent blog I mentioned that there was some rain just south of our area today, and that we needed to monitor it to see if it would try to creep north. Now the models do have a few showers in the forecast for this evening. Here is the setup. This morning we had a very cold/dry airmass in place. Lows were in the low/mid 30s and there were areas of frost. Weak high pressure was in control from the north. We started off partly cloudy, but clouds will increase through the day:
Today's Weather Forecast
Through the afternoon an area of low pressure will form to our south. The upper level winds will pick up the moisture from this surface low and stretch it up towards us. This pushing of the warm moist air over a cooler/drier airmass is called overrunning. By tonight the low will power up and move along the coast. It is expected to stay offshore, but it will be close enough to produce rain showers overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow the winds will pick up behind the low as it affects the northeast states. Winds will be out of the north and will be gusting up to 35mph. We could see some minor tidal flooding on the south end of the Chesapeake Bay. We’ll have some quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
The last three weekends have been wondeful but today was like payback. Wet, windy, and cold was the story as a strong low pressure tracked along our coast line and really bombed as it push north. It could produce record snow amounts up to a foot across New England which is rare to get such a big snow so early in the season. Places like New York City, Boston, Pittsburg usually see their first snows in late Novemember to mid December. However they have had a few earlier storms which have occured as early as October but it doesn’t happen this soon very often. We’ll see if this is a sign of what is ahead this winter.
Nor'easter Tracking North
It started with the rain this morning and there was a few bouts of heavy downpours and gusty wind with a line of storms that came through. It was very brief and most places had steady showers to drizzle through most of the day. Rain totals came in mostly under an inch.
Saturday's Rainfall Totals
If the wet and cold conditions didn’t get you the wind definitely did. Gusts were as high as 36 mph in Virginia Beach today and we still have some pretty strong gusts this evening. Winds will diminish overnight.
Sunday high pressure will build in and we’ll see plenty of sunshine but it is to be a bit breezy still and a chilly one with highs only in the mid 50s. Sunday night temperatures could dip closer to the freezing mark for inland spots with places along the coast in the upper 30s. Be sure to protect those plants.
Trick or treaters beware. Another low will develop along the coast and it won’t be as strong but could bring showers Halloween night. Right now we are watching the timing close but some of the models are bringing showers in the early during prime trick or treating while other models are saying an overnight rain. We will watch it and bring you the latest but it could a close call. Either way expect some warming temperatures, upper 50s to low 60s for highs next week.
Wow! There is a lot to talk about in this blog. That’s for sure. We’ll start with the local scene first. Yesterday was really nice. We hit 80 degrees. I had the day off and enjoyed some time outdoors. Dry, breezy, sunny. Then I got back to work today and it’s highs in the low/mid 50s….Windy…A few showers. So it’s back to reality. A cold front moved through the area early this morning. Temperatures started in the upper 40s to low 50s. They will only rise up about 4-6 degrees. Winds will be North-northeast at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph in a few cities. High pressure is trying to build in from the north, but it won’t really build in fully. Also some very dry air is working in from the north at the surface. So the rain chances are 20-30% (low) during the day.
An area of low pressure will form along the cold front today. It will begin to push the front back north as a warm front overnight. We will see rain showers pick up as overrunning takes over. Remember that is when warm moist air pushes up and lifts over a cooler airmass. Tomorrow, the low will quickly move to the northeast and strengthen. It won’t really be a Nor’easter for us as the wind will turn from northeast to more northwest as the low moves through.
However, it will be a nor’easter for the northeast states. More on that in a moment. For us it will mean a high chance for rain tomorrow. Notice the snow in West Virginia and Pennsylvania on the above map (white area). Tomorrow night as the low pushes away the winds will really pick up out of the northwest. Gusts will be to 30mph…maybe 35. This will allow the very cold air to wrap in behind it. So we could see a few sleet pellets mix-in with the lingering showers Saturday night. This would happen from the Middle Peninsula to the Eastern Shore on northward.
Future Trak Saturday Night
Purple is mixed precipitation in the above graphic. If you think that’s crazy… Cities between Washington D.C. up to Portland Maine will see 2-4″ of snow. We won’t see snow here in Hampton Roads, but we do expect about an inch of rain. I wanted some cooler weather, but it’s just too early to be talking about snow.
In the tropics we still have Rina. Luckily it weakened into a tropical storm before moving over the Cozumel/Cancun region of Mexico. Remember it quickly went from a tropical storm into a strong hurricane just a few days ago. Forecasting hurricane intensity is very difficult, and I look forward to see the latest research that the National Hurricane Center is currently doing. Rina does have a difficult environment to maintain strength. So weakening is forecast as it curves and heads south. It is expected to become a depression within the next 2 days.
Tropical Storm Rina
The Halloween forecast looks ok at this time. Highs will be in the 60s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. It will be a little cool in the 50s probably during trick-or-treat time. Now there is some rain just south of the area. We’ll have to watch to make sure that it doesn’t creep a little farther north.
This is a tale of what is a seemingly quiet neighborhood, steeped in history with tree-lined streets and charming homesteads that hearken back to America’s beginning. Col. William Crawford founded Olde Towne Portsmouth in the early part of the 18th century–a neighborhood that grew from waterfront commerce. By day, this rustic grid of early America shows and innocent face. But as the sun sets, something seems to take hold. The bells tolling from the many houses of worship seem to awaken spirits long dead, or trapped in some other dimension. I took a little walk one night and met up with a gentleman named Danny Donovan, who leads mortals in search of adventure during his ghost-walk tours. My camera captured the neighborhood’s dark side. Have look at some of the photos I snapped, and please watch the Hampton Roads Show at 11 AM on Friday October 28thfor a more in-depth look at this haunted hamlet–Through the Lens.
Get the flash player here: http://www.adobe.com/flashplayer
The Latest Running News for the “757″ by Sportswrap, Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding
On The Run For Fall!
Away We Go!
With a Big weekend on the horizon, we’ll speed through last week’s events and say congratulations to all our winners.
The Stewarts 5K and 8K on the Peninsula were a big success. First, Sam Jasinski, a 15 year old from Gloucester, was the overall winner in 19:11, while Newport News’ Sheila Scottiwas the Fastest Female in 21:34. The 8K was swift as well, with Karla Havens leading the Ladies in 36:33 and Doug Marshall finishing first with a 31:18.
The William & Mary Homecoming 5K went to “Friend of the Blog“, Karen Terry. the Newport News standout rocked to the finish line in 18:45. Blaine O’Reilly, from Richmond, was the Overall Champ, setting the course on fire in 16:38. Deborah Zies made the Run with the Law 5k all hers, posting a 23:33, while Aaron Simpson took the title in 19:13.
Last, but certainly not least, the Sunset Six K was an evening of speed. just ask Erik Bates, who won in 21:22. The Ladies were well represented with Virginia Beach’s Stephanie Smith-Olansen winning in 22:49. That’s a lot racing for one weekend! We are lucky to have SO many good Running Groups putting on multiple races.
Looking for Some Motivation?
A couple weeks ago, Fauja Singh completed the Toronto Marathon in over eight hours. Here’s the part that’s hard to imagine- he’s 100 years old! Or so he claims. The Guiness Book of World Records says they need to see a birth certificate to prove it. Nicknamed “The Turbaned Tornado”, he could be the first centenarian to do what he did. Looking at his picture below, he looks pretty good. I also found a man, Buster Martin, who’s 101 who will run the London Marathon for charity. If you reach 100, my guess is that a marathon is not on your “bucket list”. Good for them!
On The Record for a Century!
Busy Weekend Coming!
Where to begin? How about the Pumpkin Chase 5K in Matteson Trail, in Hampton this weekend. For Costumes and a “Spooky” good time, the Wicked 10K races down the Oceanfront. Jerry & Amy Frostick, great Friends of the Blog, always throw a great event. Last year this SOLD OUT! The Costumes people wore were amazing! Keeping in the festive theme, check the KidsPeace Foster Care 5K Trick or Trot 5K and Sunday, go to Downtown Norfolk for Survive: Zombie Adventure Run.
For those of you hitting up the Fifth largest Marathon in the US, a BIG “Good Luck” at the Marine Corps Marathon. 40,000 people are set for this run through Washington, D.C. on Sunday but, it has alot of local flavor. Many familiar faces and names I’ve written about will be there, including MCM Hall of Famer, Mel Williams. I posted his interview last week from 2010. Not only is he in their Hall of Fame, he is one of only four runners who’ve run ALL 35 past marathons. He once ran 2:34:49 there and has won his age group several times. I saw him a few weeks ago and he still looks strong at 73. If you get a chance to see or interact with him, you’ll be inspired too!
Time is always a winner. In Running, you can’t cheat it, turn it back, or pause it. When it comes to this year’s marine Corps Marathon, time will be in the hands of some friendly faces. Our friends at Kale Running/ Mettle Events will be manning the Time Mats at 30K, 35K, and 40K marks. Ann Hupp and the crew will be there. Just to refresh your memory, here’s an interview from the Summer:
I’ll have my camera with me and see if we can get an interview or two!
Time To Go!
What a great experience you let me have: I write and talk about what you like to do. Thanks for all the feedback, cool comments and wonderful emails. If you have an idea for a story, or want to share some running info, hit me up! Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. here’s to “Fast Times” this weekend. Maybe, I’ll catch you… “On The Run!”
See You On The Run!
“On the Run” with Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding
It was another chilly start. Morning lows came in a few degrees colder for some locales than yesterday morning. Take a look at the numbers below. Temperatures won’t be as chilly tonight.
Wednesday Morning Lows
Highs today will head into the mid 70s with upper 70s Thursday out ahead of a cold front. This front is going to really change the temperatures by Friday.
Weather Map Today
The front will drop highs about 20 degrees or so. Highs are going to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday and through the weekend. The last time we had high in the 50s was in early April.
Rain is expected Friday and Saturday because of the strong cold front and an area of low pressure that will develop along the front as it exits off shore. The highest rain chances for Saturday will be in the morning and after that chances will drop to near 30% in the afternoon. Nighttime lows won’t be too chilly tonight but will bottom out in the mid to upper 40s starting Thursday night and throughout the remainder of the week.
Hurricane Rina which is south of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico is a strong storm and could become a category three late today or tomorrow. It is not expected to affect Hampton Roads in anyway but a few models have it going toward southern Florida. The likely hood of it hitting southern Florida is low but will monitor it. The same front that will drop our temperatures by the end of this week will be the same one that will keep the hurricane away from us.
I’ll start with the tropics this time, and then hit on the local weather. Hurricane Rina basically blew up into a strong hurricane within about 18 hours.
Hurricane Rina On Satellite
Today it is a category 2 storm with winds of 100mph. It was drifting WNW at 3mph. It has a favorable environment to strengthen with warm waters and light wind shear expected in the next 24 hours. So it is forecast to intensify further.
The most likely path according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is right over Cozumel, Mexico. This is a popular tourist destination. Cozumel was hit hard by hurricane Wilma back in 2005. That hurricane sat off of the Mexican coast as a category 4 storm for hours and hours. This time the storm looks to move quickly over that area. The latest GFS model has Rina moving a little further offshore from Cozumel and then heading north of Cuba. If this forecast pans out, then Rina may affect the Florida Keys although as a weaker system. The European model does send the hurricane over Cozumel, but for some reason it also dissipates it shortly after. If Rina does get into the Gulf of Mexico, then it could affect some oil rigs. This could disrupt a certain amount of production, and may increase oil prices temporarily. I’ll leave that up to the economists. Stay tuned.
Locally we have some nice weather again today. A dry cold front has moved through the region. It didn’t cool down our temperatures this morning though. Lows were in the 50s with lows near 60 at Norfolk International. Today the front will fall apart and lose a lot of its cold characteristics.
We will see very dry conditions with lots of sunshine. Winds will be north-northwest at 10-15mph. This will make it a little cooler along the water’s edge. Bay/Ocean. We’ll still manage to warm up inland though. There will probably be a couple of inland cities near 70. Tonight winds will turn out of the southwest. This will allow for a warming pattern to setup through the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 70s. We’ll have another warm day Thursday, but it all comes to an end Thursday night. A cold front will deliver some very chilly air. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. We may see some lows in the 30s in some inland sections going into the weekend. At this time Halloween looks dry and cool.
Tip Of The Day: If you are carving your pumpkin already, then here’s a good tip. You can cover any exposed surface with Vaseline. It will help stop the pumpkin from rotting before Halloween.
Talk about a busy year in the tropics. Maybe not for the U.S. mainland so much, but the Atlantic season is still producing storms. I thought it had been a while since we’ve seen this many tropical storms. So I started checking historical information. But I stopped short at last year and was quickly reminded that we made it all the way to tropical Storm Tomas in 2010. This morning tropical storm Rina had winds of 40mph and was located in the western Caribbean. It is on a north-northwest track. It looked fairly healthy on the satellite, and had an upper outflow on most sides except for the southwest corner.
Tropical Storm Rina
The models are all over the place with this one. Some send it north towards Cuba. There is one or two that send it southwest towards Honduras. The consensus is west to northwest though.
The official forecast allows for Rina to become a hurricane before brushing up against the Yucatan Peninsula. With the variety of the models so high, I’ll wait before I busy stock in any of the particular paths.
Locally, we have some more nice weather today. We’ll see highs in the upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. There is a weak cold front which will fall apart, but try to make it through tomorrow. I actually think the high temperatures won’t change much. Instead the winds will be more out of the northwest tomorrow as opposed to today’s light northeast breeze. Later this week though another strong cold front will make its way down into the Mid-Atlantic. This will drop our high temps into the upper 50s/low 60s by next weekend. Hopefully, we’ll warm up a bit for Halloween.
Tip Of The day: Keep furniture away from radiators and heating vents to allow the air to circulate efficiently.
We have a pretty quiet forecast for us locally. Lots of sun is expected this weekend. Dry conditions are expected through early next week. Highs will be in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday. Lows will be chilly tonight. We’ll see mid-upper 40s in the metro, but some inland locations will be in the low 40s. There will probably be a few upper 30s in a couple of cities, but I don’t think we’ll see any frost just yet.
NOAA has put out it’s Winter forecast for this year. NOAA forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction center makes seasonal forecasts every year. They are a good tool, but should always be taken with a grain of salt. For example I can’t recall a forecast of theirs that deviates too far from persistence. Check out their recent precipitation forecast and compare it to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. That does not make it a bad forecast, but again one should use it as more of a guideline than a hard rule. I believe ENSO(El Nino) is a big factor in their forecast, but the North Atlantic Oscillation is also a factor as well as the Arctic Index. If you look at the Arctic Index you’ll note that it went very negative in 09/10′. That’s when we had the first big snow year in a while. Last year it was also negative, but not as much. We had another snowy Winter. I think the last couple of years have followed a late 70s pattern. I think either this year or next year we’ll see a very warm Winter. That is more art-based than science at this point. I wish I had more time to do research.
The weather has definitely changed. Yesterday we had rain showers, warm temperatures, and humid conditions. Today dry, windy, and cooler are the words of the day. Norfolk International Airport picked up 0.74″ of rain. My weather watcher Doris on the lower Eastern Shore had 1.5″. Donna in Blackwater had 1.1″. Don in Toano had 0.6″. The big storm system that impacted our weather is actually still over the United States. Instead of pushing off to the northeast it retrograded back into the Ohio Valley. But it did push a strong cold front into our area from the southwest last night. As the front passed through, the southwest winds really started to pick up. Today the front is offshore, but the winds behind it will stay up.
The low in the Midwest is very strong. It is running at about 983 millibars of pressure. For reference hurricane Irene had about 950 millibars when it moved through here. Remember the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. The low and the rain will stay west of us this afternoon. But the winds will remain. Today winds will gust up to 35mph. We’ve already seen gusts over 30mph this morning.
Wind Gusts From This Morning
The winds will stay up for most of the day. We’ll have a lot of sun this morning, but we’ll see a few clouds come in from the west this afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s. Tonight the winds will still be up a bit. Lows will be in the upper 40s. Winds in the overnight act to mix the air/heat. So instead of rising straight into the sky, the warmth can linger close to the ground. So there may be some low 40s in some areas that are protected from the wind before sunrise. Tomorrow the winds won’t be as strong, but there will still be a good breeze. Highs will be in the mid 60s. The weekend is still looking good with fair skies and highs in the low/mid 60s. A little cool in the mornings, but no 30s except for one or two far inland cities. The mosquitoes will probably slow down a bit, and maybe we’ll see less of them. But it will take a lot more to kill them for the season.