We have one more warm day, and then temperatures crash….more or less.  Highs today will be in the low/mid 80s, but it will be dry out.  We may catch an isolated shower or storm later today, but the chance is low.  Winds will be southwest at 10-15mph.  This will be out ahead of the next cold front and should keep the dry air pumping in. 

Today's Weather Map

With the relatively dry air the rain should mostly be confined to right along the front where there is more lift.  The front will move closer this evening into the overnight.  So we will see scattered showers and storms then.  It could impact a few of the football games tonight so take a jacket and/or umbrella.  Overnight lows will drop to the 50s.  Tomorrow we’ll be on the cold side of the front.  So high temperatures will only be in the mid 60s.  The powerful upper level low from the Midwest will sit right on top of us.  So we will have partly to mostly cloudy skies and there will be a few sprinkles at least.  There may even be a (few) light showers in the afternoon.  We’ll have another surge of cooler/colder air on Sunday.  Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and highs will be in the low/mid 60s.  I’m calling for partly cloudy skies, but if the upper level low hangs back, then we may see an increase in clouds and a few showers again.  For now I’ll stick with partly cloudy.  Highs will still be in the 60s on Monday.  Then low 70s by Tuesday.

In the tropics Ophelia must have had some coffee recently.  It has grown to a category 2 hurricane with winds near 100mph.  It was about 700 miles SSE of Bermuda on a slow NNW track.  It is expected to pass east of Bermuda by Saturday, and it could possibly still be a category 2 hurricane.  Since that change has been made, Bermuda will see some stronger impacts despite being on the good side of the storm.  They will see some strong gusty winds and high waves.  I doubt the sustained winds will be that bad though.  We could get some higher waves here in our regionfrom Saturday through Monday.  Especially since Ophelia has strengthened.  Might be good for surfers with wet suits.

Tracks Of The Storms

Philippe is maintaining some strength.  It had winds of 45mph and was farther east than Ophelia.  It is expected to stay on a westerly track for the next 5 days.  This will let it cross Ophelia’s old path which could cause some weakening.  The long range models mostly keep it out to sea or dissipate it, but there are a couple which take it farther west.  I’m still not too concerned about it, but it is now worth watching over the next 3-5 days.  Stay tuned!  Wow! I really am getting tired of saying those 2 words. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday was pretty rough for some folks with the heavy rain and strong winds.  Norfolk International Airport picked up 0.67″ of rain.  However, there was a cell that hung over Northern Virginia Beach for a long time.  By our radar we estimated about 4 inches of rain fell near the Chicks Beach area.

Radar Estimated Rain Totals

One viewer said that they had over 5 inches in that area.  Here is one photo sent in from Mavis Bradford of some street flooding at Chicks Beach.

Chicks Beach Flooding

Again, this is northern Virginia Beach.  We also had some impressive lightning with the storms.  This photo was sent in by Amy Hux in the Green Run section of Virginia Beach.  I bet that made some lout thunder:

Lightning (Virginia Beach)

On top of that we had some large hail.  This last photo was sent in by Barbara Berryman in northern Suffolk.  The hail was just a little bigger than quarter sized as you can see.

Hail In Suffolk

We had more showers and storms this morning across the region as small upper level disturbance moved through out ahead of a cold front.  The front should pass through today, but we will have drier air pushing in before and after from the southwest.  So this afternoon should turn out partly cloudy.  Highs will still be in the 80s, but the drier air should make it more comfortable.  Tomorrow will be nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s.  Friday night into Saturday a second cold front will move through and could create a few showers.  Then Saturday and Sunday will see a big drop in temperatures.  Highs will be in the low-to-mid 60s.  Overnight lows will be in the 50s and even some 40s.   It will be a real taste of Fall.  The Midwest upper level low will actually pass over us on Saturday.  This could create some sprinkles or a light shower, but I’m being optimistic that the dry air will win over this for now. 

We have 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic still.  Both Ophelia and Philippe are tropical storms.  Ophelia had winds of 60mph this morning and was gaining strength.  Philippe was holing it’s own with winds of 45mph.  Both storms should not affect the United States as a big upper level trough will move east and interact with the 2 storms.  Philippe’s westerly track will not only run it into the trough, but will also let it cross the path of Ophelia. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The Latest Running News and Notes in the “757″ from Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding

On The Run Again!

The “Holy Grail” of Marathon Running is the Boston Marathon. For over a century, this popular race requires that you qualify by running a previous Marathon at a certain speed based on your age. Here in Hampton Roads, many of you qualified had applied to be part of next April’s event. The registration is now SOLD OUT. For those of you lucky enough to be accepted, “Best Wishes!” I was lucky enough to make the trip in 2009. It is truly an experience you won’t forget.

Many of you have run Marathons, but how many of us can say they’ve gone longer? Say 12 or 24 Hours? This past weekend, the DC Ragnar Relay brought teams of up to 12 runners to go for 24 hours. Locally, some of our “F.O.B.“s, Friends of the Blog took part. Congratulations for going the distance.

Speaking of Distance, the 12 Hour Adventure Trail Race in Prince William a few weeks ago, also boasted local flavor as Virginia Beach’s Steve Speirs notched 65 miles (Wow!) with a Second overall Finish. The Masters Runner always seems to “bring his best” with each effort. Congrats again, Steve!

Closer To Home

Port'smouth's Ryan Carroll

This past weekend, Portsmouth’s Ryan Carroll was at it again, fresh from his Rock and Roll Half Marathon efforts, winning the Run/Walk with the Law 5K in 16:44. Lauren Emery captured the Ladies title in 25:50. Chesapeake was where the action was as the Chesapeake HS Invitational Cross Country Meet. Princess Anne’s Matthew Schwartzer, along with Abby Motley from Kellam were the Top Winners.

The Mulberry Island Half Marathon featured more winner that are Friends of the Blog, or “F.O.B“. Congratulations to Justin Turner and Kris Lawrence, the Men’s and Ladies’ Champs, while the 5K made winners out of Nate Wallace and Mae Winchester. It was a wet weekend for sure, so if you were out there, you’re a winner to me.

Ready to Run?

Friday, Madness will hit the Streets as the Larchmont RAT Race takes off across from Larchmont Elementary, by Old Dominion University. The 5K is a great run, but seeing the throngs of kids for the One Miler is amazing. Saturday, the speed switches to the Oceanfront with the Neptune Festival 8K and 5K races, while Richmond offers the legendary Capitol Ten Miler event. The Crab Festival 8K in West Point races away the same day and features a One Miler as well. Then, to cap it off, The Hilton 5K at Hilton Village in Newport News highlights the one of the Peninsula Track Club’s Feature races. If you still have some energy left, Sunday the Winged Foot Scholarship 5K in Williamsburg should be part of a great race weekend. I have already asked WAVY’s Don Slater to bring us some cooler temperatures. He has high hopes this will happen. If you are racing this weekend, “Good Luck!” To find out more about these races and more, check out kalerunning.com, tidewaterstriders.com, peninsulatrackclub.com, or colonialroadrunners.org. Between these great groups and other events, there is always something “On The Run” in Hampton Roads!

Next Week, There’s a Challenge!

I am going “Old School” with last year’s interview from Ryan Conrad of the All Access 5K. Listen to the “Moe’s Challenge”. They are doing it again this year:
.

This year, the event is Saturday night, October 8th. I hear there are a few spots available.

Time To Fly!

Thanks for ALL the positive Feedback and encouragement you send me. People I have never met have referred to me as the “On The Run” guy. Thanks for the kind thoughts and words. If you think you have a story idea to share, hit me up at astrovp@yahoo.com. Look for our weekly blog here on WAVY.com. Hope to see you out there, this weekend…”On The Run!”

See You On The Run!

Today's Weather Map

Since it will be generally closer to our region and it has slowed down even more, we now have a chance for scattered showers and storms once again in today’s forecast.  We had a cluster of storms this morning.  They mostly moved through from Sussex county up to the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck.

Super Doppler 10 This Morning

The front should pass through the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning.  Behind the front we will only see slightly cooler/drier air.  A second cold front up in the Midwest will quickly drop down into the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday night.  This will usher in the big cool down for the weekend.  We should see some nice weather over the weekend.  There is one possible fly in the ointment though.  The upper level low will actually be pushing over us duringthe weekend along with the cool down.  This could actually kick off a few stray showers here and there.  Despite dry air at the surface the upper level low is very potent and could create spotty instablity showers.  So don’t be surprised if there are a few surprises out there.  Wok wok wok. 

In the tropics we now have 2…count em 2 systems.  Like the phoenix Ophelia has completely regenerated.  It is a tropical depression, but will probably be a tropical storm within the next 2 updates.  It was a couple hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands.  Philippe is farther to the east (eastern Atlantic).  It was a weak tropical storm as of this morning.  Both systems will be impacted by the huge upcoming trough that will be over the eastern United States.  They should both remain at sea.  Here are the tracks up to Saturday. 

Tracks of The Storms

As you can see above…the 1 over Ophelia indicates that it is officially forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday.  Luckily it should pass well east of Bermuda.  Philippe should follow suit if it survives at all.  If Ophelia does become a hurricane, then it could churn up the Atlantic waters just as Maria and Katia did.  Stay tuned.

Tip Of The Day: When working or playing outside.  Be sure to use a good mosquito repellent.  One with DEET.  Until the humidity and the temperatures really drop, those little buggers will stick around for a while. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We had some patchy thick fog this morning in the metro area.  It even caused a school delay on the Eastern shore.  The fog will burn off later this morning.  It is a signature of the moisture that is still in place across Hampton Roads.  Yesterday the moisture wasn’t enough to produce rain in the metro area.  It all stayed over North Carolina.  (mostly along the coast).  Today there is a better chance for the storms moving into our area.  This is out ahead of a slow moving cold front that is expected to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.  Look how close it is on the map though. 

Today's Weather Map

It goes to show you just how tediously slow it has been moving.  By the way a purple front means that it is occluded.  This is basically when the warm air inflow is cut-off from the system.  Cooler air wraps into the cool air already in place.  Wednesday night into early Thursday the front will bring some scattered showers and storms.  Highs on Thursday won’t be that much lower, but dry air will filter in trough the day.  On Friday we’ll be feeling pretty good with highs in the upper 70s and drier conditions.  Then a stronger surge of cool air comes in Friday night into Saturday.  We could see a stray shower with this, but the big story will be temperatures.  Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 60s.  Lows will be in the 50s.   We’ll warm up just a bit more on Monday.

In the tropics we have 2 things going on…sort of.  Tropical storm Ophelia is still not a depression or storm (at the time of this writing). However, the National Hurricane Center is calling for a 70% chance that it will regenerate in the near future.  It’s possible.  Even if it does form, then it should stay away from the U.S. mainland.  Tropical storm Philippe is still a tropical storm.  It has weakened in the overnight.  The long term track has changed a bit though.  It is more to the northwest in the 4-5 day range.  It too should stay out to sea in the longer range. 

Tropical Storm Philippe

Tip Of The Day: With all of the recent rain, now might be a good time to do the Fall planting for grass.  You’ll have some fair weather later this week, when you can go out and do some yard work.  Course that will be after you finally cut the grass that you have.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We’ve had our fair share of rain recently.  In fact the recent numbers are interesting.  So far Norfolk International Airport has had 6.54″ this month.  That is 2.48″ above the montly average.  We are 8.85″ above the average for the year.  That is impressive. Espcially after this Summer’s prolonged drought.  Speaking of….Elizabeth City is still running an annual deficit.  They are up 1.25″ for the month, but still down 8.54″ for the year.  Wallops Island is down 0.78″ for the month, and down 2.22″ for the year.  Richmond is up 3.76″ for the month.  Up 3.36″ for the year.  Again…interesting numbers.  And varying.

Today we do have a chance for some more showers and storms, but the chance for rain will be less than the weekend.  Also, we’ll see some sunshine today on and off.  Overall the weather pattern is still stuck from last week.  It hasn’t really changed. So the warm/moist air will continue out of the south for a few more days. 

Today's Weather

By Thursday we should finally get some drier weather, but the cool down won’t come until next weekend.  The front on the map above will stall out.  So we won’t get any heat relief from that. Next weekend, however, high temperatures will be in the 60s for a couple of days.  Overall though the long term pattern still looks warm. 

Now some of you may ask what is this Phillipe business, and what about Ophelia?  Tropical storm Ophelia has become a remnant low.  It may fire back up, but is more likely to completely dissipate.  Phillipe is the new tropical storm in the Atlantic.  It’s closer to Africa than to the United States. The good news about Philippe is that it is highly likely that it will stay out to sea and away from us. 

Philippe

As far as the rest of hurricane season.  Officially we still have a way to go.  It doesn’t end until November 30th.  However, we are typically out of the woods in Hampton Roads by the second week of October.  (Typically!)

Tip Of The Day: When fog develops, then be sure to use your low-beam headlights. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Please, no more is what a lot of viewers have been saying since the relentless rains started.  For me the consolation for not being able to get out is that hopefully this rain can continue to help the smoldering in The Great Dismal Swamp.  A recent report revealed that it is still not out after more than 15″ of rain. Ugh!  Here is a look at today’s rain totals.

Sundays Rain

We have had 10 days of measurable rain this month.  Monthly rain totals are at 6.54″ at Norfolk International.  This puts us about 2.50″ above the monthly normal. 

Thankfully, a few more days and we will be rain free but before we get there rain chances will stay up through Wednesday. 

Weather Map

The upper level low that has been stuck across the mid-west will finally start to move northeast by Tuesday.  As it pushes northeast it will drag a cold front through our area which will put an end to the unsettled weather pattern.  In the meantime it is going to be humid the next few days with winds out of the southeast. 

Full sunshine returns Thursday with temperatures falling into the 60s for highs by the weekend.

What was T.S. Ophelia is now just a low pressure area.  It degenerated earlier today and is expected to dissipate the next few days.  However a few models are showing a regeneration,  we will watch it. 

Tropics

Phillipe is still a tropical storm and is way out there near the coast of Africa.  It could become a hurricane the next few days but expected to stay away from land.  Thank God. 

T.S. Phillipe

Meteorologist Sagay Galindo

Thankfully no super heavy rain like what we had Friday.  There were a few heavy pockets but nothing compared to the torrential downpours we had on Friday.  Rainfall amounts were definitely lower over all especially for places north of the metro but there were places along the Outer Banks that had 3″ plus.

Saturdays Rain Totals

Saturday's Rain Totals

The pattern has remained unchanged which means that tomorrow rain chances will be back on the high side.  An upper level low pressure continues to spin across the mid-west, meanwhile a stationary boundary just off our coast will continue to draw in tropical moisture from the south.  A few stronger pieces of energy will travel along the stationary boundary and spread rain back inland on Sunday.  

Sundays Weather Map

As some of those stronger waves of energy push across our area there could be a few periods of heavy rain.  A few thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon too.  Just like today, rain will begin to diminish by the evening hours, Sunday. 

Some changes on Monday, for starters I don’t think it will be a complete washout and most of the rain will arrive in the afternoon and evening.  Chances for rain will start to decrease significantly Wednesday.  Before we get to those brighter days… here is a look at additional rainfall amounts expected from tonight through Sunday night. 

Rain Totals From Saturday Night To Sunday Night

Speaking of rain and unsettled patterns… it is still pretty active in the tropics.  No big surprise, because it stays pretty active through about mid October before we start to see things settling down.  Right now there are three areas we are watching. 

Areas To Watch In The Tropics

The area off the coast of Florida near Bahama Island Chain is very disorganized and has a low chance of development.   Already we’ve had moisture from it moving north and helping to keep us wet.  It is expected to get caught up with the front off shore and not develop into anything further.  We’ll let you know if anything changes.

Phillipe and Ophelia are both Tropical Storms that pose no danger to the US.  However Ophelia could affect Bermuda but as always will continue to monitor.

T.S. Phillipe

T.S. Ophelia

Meteorologist Sagay Galindo

Why the question marks in the title you ask.  Well it’s because around here you have to be careful what you wish in Hampton Roads.  Folks that wished for an end to the drought and wildfire had Irene and then the remnants of Lee.  So I do hope that the rain lets up a little this weekend.  I’m told that farmers in the region are hoping to plant Winter wheat, but have trouble getting the machines in the wet fields.  These are the same fields that have been parched all Summer long.

There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect through this evening.

Flash Flood Watch

If we see weather like we did this morning, then there won’t be too many problems.  We did have scattered to occasional light showers from 4am through 6am, but then the rain really let up.

Satellite/Radar

The weather pattern is still stuck in place.  So the southerly train of moisture will keep trucking on in from the south.  The sun will try to peak through at times like yesterday, but showers will return.

Stuck Weather Pattern

The above map really won’t change much over the weekend.  The front will be stationary to our west.  The upper level low will sit over the Midwest.  It will finally kick out on Monday.  Then another cold front will clean out the moisture and warmth by the middle of next week.  The models are still split about some slightly drier air working into the area on Sunday.  For now I’ve split the difference and gone with scattered showers and storms.  Even the drier model (NAM) still has something that day.  But I do think that the sun will peak out for a while. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia really weakened overnight.  The morning update gave it winds of 45mph, but even the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that that could be generous.  The odds are good for it to stay out to sea.  It may dissipate in the next 5 days as the wind shear will keep working on it and chipping away at the surrounding thunderstorms. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia

We’ll keep you posted.

Oh and I mentioned before that the NAS Oceana airshow will still be on this weekend despite rain chances.  They do have routines for low ceilings and rain.  Plus, I’m hoping there will some times where the rain lets up and the sun comes out.  Especially on Sunday when I’m out there.  (fingers crossed).

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Well some folks must have done a heck of a rain dance during this Summer’s drought.  If that is you, then you can take a break for a while.  If you did do a dance, then what song did you use?  There are a lot of rain songs out there, and Don Roberts and I were mentioning a couple.  “Raindrops falling on my head”, “Red Rain”, “Purple Rain”, and the best one of all…..”Blame it on the rain”.  That was from Milli Vanilli.  What’s your favorite?  Anyway, this morning’s commute luckily wasn’t as bad as yesterday’s. We only had some spotty showers.  But at the time of this writing it is beginning to pick up a little bit.  Our computer model “Future Trak” really picks up on the showers this afternoon.

Future Trak (3pm Thursday)

The moisture continues to funnel in from the south as advertised.  There is a cold front to the west, but it has already begun to stall out on the south end.  So no relief from the muggy weather anytime soon.

Today's Weather

Our model is forecasting about 1-2 inches for a rain tally up through early Saturday.  It has an area of heavy rain in some of our inland sections that is up to almost 4″. 

Forecast Rain Amounts

The best chance for rain will be later today through most of tomorrow.  We will also have a chance for rain on Saturday as well as the upper level weather pattern will be stuck.  On Sunday some of the models pull in drier air in the upper levels.  2 out of 3 models do this, but one holds on to the moisture.  So it’s possible that we’ll see a little more sun and less rain that day.  I hope so because that’s when I’ll be at the NAS airshow from noon to 2. 

Tropical storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. It had winds of 65mph and was moving west at 14mph.  It is likely to keep moving west for about 48 hours and then should start a northerly turn. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia

The models do vary a bit.  Some of them wipe Ophelia out.  Others have it moving along the above path and strengthening a bit.  Either way, for now it has good odds that it will stay out to sea.  The big upper level trough over the U.S. should make sure of that. 

Tip Of The Day: Turn on your vehicle lights when it is raining and even when it is cloudy.  You may be able to see fine, but it helps others to see you.  Plus it’s the law during rain. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler