Scattered….May 16th, 2011 at 8:46 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
I’ve said the word scattered a lot lately, and it made me think of the Rolling Stones song “Shattered” (1978). Probably because they repeat the word in their song several times. If you missed my repeated tune, then don’t worry. I’ll be saying it a lot more over the next few days. When we say scattered we mean that there is a 30-50% chance for rain in the forecast. Some folks get it…others don’t. When I call for 30% then I am pretty much calling for hit and miss. When I call for 50% then that is a decent chance for rain. 60% or higher is a good chance (above scattered). 80% or higher is usually a done deal.
This weekend we had some times of hit and miss and other times where there was a good area of rain (Saturday night). Yesterday we had some pretty heavy rain at my house, but the airport only caught 0.02″ of rain. Greg, my weather watcher in Currituck, mentioned that he missed the rain and could use some for his crops. Here was the radar estimates from Super Doppler 10.
Due to the miss at the airport, now we are officially down to 6.10″ below the average for rainfall. There is another chance for rain today. We’ll see a 30% chance for scattered showers and storms this afternoon. The reason for the rain is due to an upper level low that sat over us all weekend, and will continue to sit for 5 more days:
The upper level dip causes disturbed weather that can last as long as it is overhead. Today there is a little punch of dry air in the upper levels. You can see it clearly on the water vapor image:
So we do have a dry pocket upstairs, but plenty of humidity at the surface. Tomorrow, I think we’ll see a slug of moisture at both levels, and so I am calling for a 60% chance for rain. Also that little spin over Alabama (above picture) will head this way. This is a more concentrated area of spin/energy in the broader flow. (A vorticity maximum, but vort max for short). The models run this very close to our area on Tuesday. That feature will push a little further north Wednesday through Friday, but it will still be close enough to cause a chance for scattered pm storms. So if you need some rain, then get ready to do your best rain dance over the
Tip Of The Day: If you are heading out in a boat, then it’s very important to have a NOAA weather radio. Weather can change quickly and that type of radio will broadcast important marine warnings that can give you a heads up, and keep you safe.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler