The Key to Snow Fall Amounts?
February 6th, 2010 at 7:16 am by Jon Cash under Personalities, Weather
An unusually strong upper level low pressure system in the jet stream level (around 20,000 feet) is the key to how much snow you get in your city. The rule of thumb is rather simple for meteorologists. The accumulating snow occurs along and north of the upper level low vorticity max. This system is easily seen on current satellite images and is better seen on what we call “water vapor” loops.
The forecast is for this low to drop down from southwest VA toward Raleigh and then across Northeastern N.C. to a location near Knotts Island late today. So draw a line from those locations northward and that’s where the snow will fall and stick. The second rule to remember is the heaviest snows usually occur 40-100 miles north of the upper low track. So I am expecting 1-3″ on the southside, 2-4 inches on the peninsula, 3-7 inches middle peninsula, northern neck and the northern part of the Eastern Shore. Carolina will receive lesser amounts with little or none on the Outer Banks.
If the track of that low shifts even a bit…that can alter snowfall amounts and drastically impact travel for the better or worse depending on your location. At this point it would be safe if everybody was home by 10-11am on the peninsula and 11am-12pm on the southside.
Meteorologist Jon Cash
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
Jon, thank you for explaining how the weather patterns develop and affect our weather, on air as much as time permits. It’s good to learn new things!
It’s snowing in Suffolk(Holland)10:55 am..
it started snowing here in Gloucester at 1030 and it is coming down hard.
hi john this is elly here in deltaville and it is 12:36 pm and the snow is falling hard here looks like it is going to last awile have a nice day
Current driving conditions from Great Bridge to Suffolk to Newport News???
Let it SNOW!!!
I just wanted to take a few minutes to make a point about travel during the weather. I know everyone wants to be safe but everyone keeps making comments on TV about “stay home and off the roads” I agree that everyone needs to be safe however there are some people that need to go to work. For instance, I am in the health care industry. We need our workers. We have patients that need staff to show up for work. We advise our employees to leave early and that it is OK if they are a little late. We want them to be safe but we also have to look out for the interest of the people we care for. If it was my loved one I would want to feel secure that there was enought staff to care for them. Thanks.
SNOW!! I LOVE IT!! COME ONNN DOWNN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the blog, Jon Cash!
It’s coming down pretty nice in Windsor, too. It’s sticking but spotty I guess because of the wet ground. Temp is at 32 here.
Greetings from Hampton!
It has been snowing here since about 11:30. We are having other issues as well. There are lots of roads with water on them. I am wondering in the case of the standing water, the cold temps and the snow, what will happen to the roads that are under water?
I am also concerned because the snow fall started out as sleet, and the snow has been falling at rapid pace, probably appears more so because of the wind. What will happend to snow totals if the front shifts more down further, more cold air, then? Now we are looking at 2-4 when do you think you will have a better idea on more or less snow amounts?
Thanks for the great blogs.
Jon Cash, I have a question:
Do you think we’ll see another snowstorm here in the southside of VA again this winter? We enjoyed that so much, it was great. I want more of it and I wish we had it all winter.
*I meant more snow like last weekend.
Glad I was able to dust off the ole “Weather Watcher” cap for this snow event!
John,
I’ve always been a faithful follower of your reports but you blew it today. You predicted dangerous roads conditions which did not happen at the penninsula & Southside and that led to cancelations following your report. I know you love the snow but you don’t realize that when when you sensationalize your reports, ie. hanging that silly snowflake around your neck. you cause economic hardship on people who’s busines depend on people attending their functions. I live in Newport News near Ft. Eustis and the street in front of my house is clear. You sounded so convincing that I even cancelled an event I had in Norfolk. Never again. I know one viewer won’t make a difference to you but I’m sure I’m not the only one that feels that way.
Very dissappointed.
Hey Jon!!
Where was your snowflake today?!!
We had a freakin’ blizzard on the Eastern Shore!! LOL!!