Snow, Rain, Mix… (Update)
February 5th, 2010 at 3:21 pm by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
(Update….Rather than start a new blog, I thought I’d update this one. Winter Storm Warning now for the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Accomack county. Winter Weather Advisory for the Peninsula, Southside, and Northampton county, VA. High Wind warning for coastal areas for wind gusts between 50-60mph. Rain has taken over most of the metro and the rain/snow line is now moving through the Middle Peninsula. Here’s the latest snow estimates for tomorrow: dusting to 1 inch North Carolina, 1-3″ southside, 1-3″ peninsula, 2-5″ williamsburg, 2-5″ Middle Peninsula, 1-3″ lower Eastern Shore, 2-5″ Accomack, 6-10″ Northern Neck. Again, see below for snow accumulations versus standing water)
Here’s the previous discussion:
You are not dreaming or seeing things. There is still some snow in the area. We did get quite a few reports of snow between noon and 3pm. We had some evaporative cooling happening and that created some pockets of snow and mix this early afternoon. As the precipitation falls it cools due to evaporation (with the right conditions). Snow forms and lasts until the air is saturated (totally moist). The rain/snow line is pushing northward though. Slowly! I am very confident that this will all be rain by tonight. The exception is up towards Richmond and the Northern Neck. They could stay a rain/snow mix tonight. Here’s the forecast map. Pink is a rain/snow mix.
Tonight's Forecast
Moderate to heavy rain will persist overnight and will create lots of minor flooding. Mostly back yards and some streets. The separate tidal flooding shouldn’t get going until 2-4am tonight. Then again between 2-4pm. Tides will run 2-3feet above normal. The forecast for Sewell’s Point has came down a little. Now it is forecast to be a little over 5ft on Saturday. Again, mainly between 2-4am and pm. Tomorrow the low pressure will begin moving offshore and will strengthen. This will allow the cold air to funnel back southward as winds turn north/northeast. It’s not just the cold air at the surface though. The colder air at the 850mb pressure level (about a mile up) will start to push south as well. That is a level that we use to help determine the rain/snow line. I use where the tempature is between -2 and colder. Sorry, I got too nerdy there. Anyway, tomorrow we’ll see the rain change back to snow and stick in some areas. Here’s the forecast map for tomorrow:
Tomorrow's Forecast
Snow showers will increase thorugh Saturday evening and then taper off before midnight. Here is the snow totals map that I used at midday:
Snow Forecast
Expect a dusting up to 2″ in the non colored area. Here’s the thing about this map… I mentioned on a previous blog that if there is standing water everywhere, then it will be very tough for the snow to stick to the ground. So I think a lot of this snow will fall out of the sky, but will melt. If the cold air can move down quicker, then the top layer of water can freeze. Then we can see those numbers on the ground. For now I’m leaning towards the lower numbers in the range. It’s interesting that the NAM is showing more snow for the area. (5″ for Norfolk with a 10-1 ratio), but our Futuretrak is showing much lower amounts. (About 1.5″ for Norfolk). Our model is very high resolution and is probably doing a better job with the temperatures. We’ll see. It really did a good job during the last storm. Here is a snapshot of Futuretrak at 3:00pm tomorrow:
Future Trak Tomorrow
This was the overnight run. Don Slater will have the updated morning version tonight at 5:00pm. It is looking like it has a good handle on the rain/snow. The heaviest snow by far is forecast to fall from Richmond to the Northern Neck up to Washington D.C. Some forecasters are calling for 20inches of snow there. Looking at the latest radar, I can believe it. This will shut down some of the North Virginia Cities for a couple of days. Keep that in mind if you are travelling.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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29 Comments
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
Thanks so much for all the detail, I love it!!
man, it’s so depressing getting this awesome, heavy snow here in williamsburg right now knowing full well that it will be changing to rain and washing away tonight… I hope we get another storm turn this winter, but its just so hard to get it right in this area
Sorry Jeremy, that should be AY not AYE.
Dogh! Ay Mate.
ummmm guys in gloucester courthouse it is snowing hard with accumulation on roadways on grass….just want to give you all an update
would u happen to know if the weather will be ok for flights to arrive around 5pm tomorrow?
There will probably be a lot of delays and/or cancellations. Check ahead.
thank you
Many of the weather forecasts fail to mention the middle penninsula (Gloucester) specifically. Your station always mentions the southside, penninsula and Richmond. There is a lot of area between these areas, and our weather patterns can be significantly different that the southside.
haha I was actually thinking wavy does a good job at mentioning middle peninsula compared to the other stations…
Mathews County had heavy snow today – and is still snowing (5:19)
Snowing for the 3rd time here today in Accomack County. Starting to stick in grassy areas.
Raining in Ahoskie – 6:53 pm
Thanks for the update Jeremy! You mentioned a dusting to 1 inch for North Carolina. Would that include the NC/VA border(Moyock), or would we have 1-3 inches?
So for us graveyard shift workers tonight, can we expect a safe drive home at 3:15 am?
So long as you don’t have tidal flooding. Plus there’ll be ponding on roadways.
What do you think might happen with schools on Monday?
Thanks for the update! I am near Franklin (Sedley) and looking for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Any idea how fast the temps will drop tomorrow? It will I am sure make a difference with the ice and snow on top. Thanks again.
HEY I WORK IN NORFOK downtown area and I must go to work tomorrow, I NEED TO KNOW WHAT TIME WILL THE WATHER GET BAD.. OR WILL IT BE SAFE FOR ME TO DRIVE TO NORFOLK DOWNTOWN AREA AND BACK TO NEWPORTNEWS WITH OUT HITTING ANY BAD WEAHTER. I cant drive in bad weather at all, but my job doesn’t care. So can you help me & let me know what the time frame of what will be happening Between these hours 7am thru 1pm Please. Thanks so much… for all you all do for us here in hampton Roads. Porsha
The tide will be up between 2 and 4 am. Then it will get high again between 2-4pm. There may be a little general flooding anyway. Winds will be bad the whole time. Snow will move in around midday. Be careful!
Thanks for the updates. Here in northern Accomack County, snow has stopped but winds have started picking up with a drop in temperature. Many secondary roads still a mess from last week-end. On the bright side, at least it’s happening on the week-end again when we can stay home and spring is just a little over 6 weeks away!
Jeremy, What do you think the snow amounts for Southampton/Suusex county will be tomorrow? 3-5 inches or so?
Two suggestions for WAVY weather website: Why can’t you show us an ARROW showing the direction the radar picture is moving? If the image is a still shot, we have no idea which way the storm is moving! ALSO, why is there no color key on the image which shows us what the colors mean on the overlay? Please think like the customer/viewer, not a professional weatherman. I look at this website, and usually come away learning nothing much more than I knew before. Thanks.
There is a looping radar on there. Also, I’ve had the color legend in mind. 90% of the time it’s not necessary.
I love the WAVY weather team. I get all my weather updates from them. Thanks.
It is snowing like crazy in the Toano VA area. Could you udate me on the road condition here in the Williamsburg area?
The weather watchers and jam cams look pretty bad up your way. Interstate 64 has snow on the roads up there.
so my boat is spost to pull out tomorrow anyone know if its gonna be safe for myself and my shipmates?
Northampton county on the Eastern Shore has had a pretty good snow. Lots of power outages. Lots of wind.