You’re all going to have to pardon me.  I’m working from home (on my day off), so I can’t do a high quality blog like I’d like to do.  The bottom line…this weekend is just going to be a mess.  We have a Flood Watch up for most of the viewing area.  We have Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal flooding on Saturday.  There is a Winter Storm Watch up for the Northern Neck and Middlesex county.  That could shift over to Accomack county, but we’ll see. 

A large area of low pressure is expected to move through the region.  It will turn into a classical Nor’easter with about 998mb of pressure.  (A fairly strong low pressure system). 

Snow:  We could start out with a little rain/snow mix tomorrow morning as the moisture moves into a fairly cold airmass.  As the day moves on though, the warmer south/southeast winds will push the rain snow line way north. The rain that falls will melt just about anything that is on the ground.  Saturday afternoon the rain/snow line will begin to push back southward.  This will let snow move back into Hampton Roads.  The amount of moisture that hangs back behind the low will determine how much snow gets into the metro area.  Another factor as to how much snow will actually be on the ground is the standing water.  I’m expecting widespread flooded back yards and a lot of streets could be flooded.  As the snow falls on this, it will be tough to stick.  If the cold air can come down before the snow really gets going, then it’s possible to turn some of that into ice.  Then the snow can stick.  Any salt on the roads that is put out tonight has a chance to get washed away.  I saw Don Slater’s evening forecast for amounts.  He’s generally calling for a gradual increase of snow from southeast to northwest.  Flurries for the Outer Banks, northeast North Carolina,  and the southside.  Possibly an inch or two across parts of the southside (mainly inland).  About 1-3″ for the Peninsula.  Williamsburg was in his 4-6″ with higher amounts towards Richmond.  The Middle Peninsula could see about 2-5″, but the Northern Neck could see up to 10″.  Possibly more.  The Eastern Shore will also see an increase from south to north.  Cape Charles in the 1-2″ range.  Chincoteague in the 5-9″ range.  So the problem is that the models are spitting out some amounts, but it will be hard for that to stick as water will cover a lot of the ground.  They are talking about over 15″ in some areas around Washington D.C. up to Baltimore.  If you have travel plans for Saturday, then you may have to have a backup plan. 

Flooding/Rain:  We could see 1-3″ of rain before this system departs. 

HPC Estimated Rainfall

This is the latest rainfall forecast from HPC.   With the rain that we’ve already seen, that is why the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch.  This will create a lot of minor flooding in the area as the water is running out of places for it to go.  Especially with possible tidal flooding….

Tidal Flooding:  The forecast for Saturday at Sewell’s Point is about 5.5 feet.  This means that the tides are expected to run about 2-3feet above normal.  That will be around 3 pm in the afternoon at the highest.  The Nor’easter of 09′ got up to about 7.3ft.  So minor to moderate tidal flooding is forecast.  After the big Nor’easter in 09′, we had another smaller one that caused some tidal flooding.  I have the records up at work, but I think it was in December.  I think we’ll see similar tidal flooding compared to that.   (See older blogs)

Wind: Winds will gust between 40-50mph.  It is why we are expecting tidal flooding.  We could some power outages, but they usually aren’t widespread until you get winds gusting between 50-60mph. 

No matter what happens, this will be a mess of a system.  A lot of people may not want the Snow Hope Index up this time.  Think about how many Super Bowl parties would have to be cancelled on Sunday if there was a lot of snow on the ground! Oh boy!  At least the weather will be much quieter on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler