The Winter Forecast
November 20th, 2009 at 5:30 am by Jon Cash under Weather
Everybody is emailing me about the Winter Forecast. Some major weather firms across the country are forecasting a cold snowy Winter for this area. While I love snow more than any human alive…I am not prepared to make such a forecast. In fact I must tell you the science behind long-range forecasting is so suspect…I simply ignore it. I would love to do those forecasts because I know everybody is curious about the season ahead. But this fact is irrefutable…nobody can accurately forecast the weather more than 5-7 days in advance. The Farmers Almanac can not…the hurricane forecasters cannot…rug rats and groundhogs cannot…the smartest Doctor of Weather cannot. This is why I do not place much trust in the forecasts for global warming…if we can’t accurately forecast the weather a week or two in advance…then why I should I place my faith and trust in a forecast a decade or more out including the global warming hype? The variables that go into forecasting are simply too complex and variable and often not measured well on an empirical basis to be very accurate. So enjoy those forecasts but don’t be surprised when they are wrong!
Jon Cash
Tags: Long Range Forecasting
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
thank you jon….i so totally agree with you……
I enjoy your honesty! That is why I watch your forcast every morning for the past…well I always have. I love how Kerry Furry gives you such a hard time. Thanks for the awesome and honest forecast.
sincerly,
Aaron Pope
Aaron’s Lawn Care
Global warming is not a weather forecast, and does not deserve to be lumped into the same category as long-range forecasting. The only group that I have come across that doesn’t “believe” in global warming are the ultra fanatical religious people.
I like dealing with weather myself, but know only Jesus holds this all in his hands. What HE says goes! AMEN!!
John
I can take you to a location in Scott’s Creek that will prove that the water levil has risen 6″ – 12″ in my lifetime. Also a mark where the 1933 water came to!
Wilson
Nice to see a meteorologist put it in writing. Frankly, the whole global warming thing has been driving me nuts, for, among other things, the reason you list. Hell, you guys can’t even get 5 to 7 days right, you are constantly tweaking that. Weather patterns are constantly changing.
Anyway, glad to read your post, and keep up the good work.
Jon, i have to tell yuh
I have never experienced so much hatred within myself when we had no-show-snow-storms in a row. UGH it just killed me! I would always get so excited that I would stay up till 2 in the morning on school nights last year only to wake up at 6 to nothing!
So, this year, I told my dad yesterday not to inform of ANY possible storms this year. I just cant experience that pain any more! hahahaha. I lose sleep over these storms in the anticipation because i LOVE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!
I hope we have a GREAT snow year in my senior year of high school!!!!
By the way, I think you have met a match in level of loving snow!
I Honestly think this year will be one of the Snowiest years in Record history probly sense it has been kept with the Southern Jet and active storms who knows hopefully it does i want over a foot of snow.
Global warming is something I believe in, but not the hyped up info that’s out there. Read dissenting opinions, like Jon’s, with an open mind. Try reading the book, Cool It. So, thanks, Jon, and maybe you could forward your blog to the White House so they can focus on more immediate needs. :0
Jon you are the best, I watch you every morning. You have met your match in me with loving snow also. I appreciate your honesty and your acknowledgement when you get it wrong. (rarely) Go skins to don’t let those crazy cowboy fans harass you.