A Historic Noreaster
November 11th, 2009 at 5:28 am by Jon Cash under Weather
This November Noreaster will be a very strong storm. The key to the forecast will the exact wind speed just off shore. The Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 brought tens of millions of dollars in damage to the area and a tide one foot higher than Isabel in 2003. That storm was three days long. The offshore winds were 60-65 mph for three days leading to that historic high tide. Currently the thinking is that the winds will be running 45-55 mph off shore for three days…that lower wind should keep the tide just below Hurricane Isabel levels…any increase of decrease in that wind will either add to or subtract from the water levels and the damage in the region. Remember the tide was one foot higher during Ash Wednesday than Hurricane Isabel. With the projected winds from this storm…the tide should top out a big below Hurricane Isabel. So the wind speed offshore is CRITICAL to this forecast and the damage that could occur. Stay tuned!
Jon Cash
Tags: Historic Noreaster
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
Jon, I,m a bit of history buff,live on knotts island. There were inlets formed on the outerbanks by storms over the course of history. Thats how the state line was established. three ships came in from the oceanside east of knotts island. So we can expect these storms on average every 25 years or so.
Hey Jon Cash my name is Brett. I heard on the Weather Channel that there is a Low Pressure Center in the Atlantic near the Islands headed toward what was IDA and they said that it is going to combine with it. Is it possible if that happens the storm get’s worse than your forecasting right now?
What about Knobbs creek in Elizabeth City. In Ernesto our family home was flooded by 2 feet across from Albemarle hospital. Do you expect flooding that far inland
My family and I live in the military housing at willoughby by ocean view in norfolk. I have never been through anything like this we have a brand new new born and I am concerned and would like to know if the ocean view all areas get flooded or not? I watch your weather very closley and am getting a little nervous about this nor’easter
thank you
Keep us updated John Cash! Foxhill area of Hampton is counting on you.
This would have been a perfect set up for a Blizzard in Hampton Roads. Wow.
I am very concerned about the impact to the Blackwater River, but so far I have not heard any information on the potiential impact to western tidewater.
I live in Wythe on the water. My home was completely destroyed by Isabele and took several years to complete the rebuild. I take this information seriously and appreciate you and your team keeping me up to date by the minute! Thank you!
Will the tent hold up? I live on the Lynnhaven River (currently witecaps can be seen) and The Chesapeake Bay Wine Classic is Saturday. The tent is up and they are busy working to get everything ready!!! Hope the tent will hold up. They said that it can stand hurricane force winds… We will see!!
Jon- The weather channel is talking about a new low just developing off of the N/S Carolina coast. What do you think the effects of this new developement will mean for wind speeds off shore?
I know that Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel is broadcasting from the Nags Head Pier in Nags Head, NC. The real action is in South Nags Head between the 20 and 21 mile post, at the east end of Seagull Dr. My family has a house right there on (in) the ocean and it is getting beaten up as I write this. The house just to the north of it is hanging and pilings are swinging. This is where the action is if you want to see and report on the destruction this storm is packing on the Outer Banks. There is also a sand bagging business that is brigning sand in to these homes there, right now, as fast as the trucks can load and bring it in, trying to save these houses. YOU NEED A REPORTER HERE!! THIS IS WHERE THE STORY IS!!
It’s supposed to be called “NorTHeaster”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nor “Noreaster”!! This makes my dad mad EVERY time he hears or reads “Noreaster”
Everyone in the entire english speaking world calls it a Noreaster, except one person, and we’re all supposed to stop calling it a noreaster because of one mans wrong pronunciation?
How about comparing this storm to TS Ernesto. Just went through high tide in the Guiena area of Gloucester and no where near Isabel. Was not even comparable to Ernesto. Are your predictions based on Southside?
JoeSchmoe tell your dad to get a dictionary. It’s pronounced both ways but I never heard anyone on the East Coast call it a NorTHeaster. Pronouncing it that way out here or in New England will make you sound either mentally chanllenged or from the midwest.
Thanks, John abd WAVY 10 for keeping us informed of weather issues here on Hatteras Island. We always watch channel 10 because we like NBC and more importantly because you include the Outer Banks in your weather news (not too much about Hatteras Island, however). Anyway, coming from upstate NY where we do not have tides I am confused by your references to high tides as being 10 ft in the Ash Wednesday Storm, 7.5 feet in Isabel, and 6.5 feet now. Is this height above mean high tide? feet above mean ocean level? Would you please clarify. You probably said it in your broadcast or maybe its on the web site and I missed it so I apologize for being so dumb.
Don
Please get a new editor somene to read your work or at least a gramer book. I had to read this several time to get through it.
Newport News Public School students will not be marked absent today from school.
today is going to be a long day. from the time me and my wife got up this morning till the time she had to go to work we have seen 3 cars get stuck but they pulled themselves out. one car stop working and the 2 guys got out there car to push it but the guy who was in the back pushing stop to turn around and pick up his hat his car started to go backwards and almost hit him.. i was scared for him….we are located on early street.i hope that my wife is ok on her way to work….
Silly arguments.
I can’t be that Newport News Public Schools didn’t cancel school today.
They are the only school district that didn’t cancel.-
I tried to call their number numerous times, and it was busy. –
I guess they weren’t concerned about the safety of their children.
What were they thinking?!
I hate it when it is like this and plz keep us updated
I was very fortunate with this storm. My neighbors on each side lost both their houses to this NorEaster.. Isabel was worse. I will sell the next time they predict a hurricane to hit Kitty Hawk. House 4 Sale cheap !! Quick buy now.. I only lost my deck and stairs. Sorry to the others homeowners.