Nor’easter. No Joke.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:11 pm by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
While I like to keep the blogs on a fun tone with an occasional joke. Today is not that day. A Nor’easter is forecast to develop southeast of our area and sit for 3-4 days. With the high pressure area to the north we are going to get the usual squeeze play between the different pressures (pressure gradient force). This will give us persistent winds out of the Northeast/East for several tidal cycles. Winds will be running 15-30mph with higher gusts near the shore. Here is the forecast map for Wednesday afternoon from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):
A Coastal flood watch is up for all Atlantic/Bay coastal cities in the viewing area tomorrow through Thursday. This could get extended into Friday. Jon Cash showed a graphic with his latest thinking at midday as far as tidal flooding. He mentioned that Hurricane Isabel produced a water rise of 7.9ft. Severe flooding starts at about 7ft. At the low threshold the water with this Nor’easter may rise up between 6-7ft. At his higher threshold the water could rise above Isabel’s level (possibly). Here is the latest forecast for the tide at Sewell’s Point from the National Weather Service.
The tallest black hump early Friday is what should grab your attention. That’s about 7.2ft. Now I guarantee you this forecast will change. It is based off of a lot of factors (wind, tides, surge, etc.). According to Jon Cash the Ash Wednesday Storm produced a water rise of 9ft. We probably won’t see that, but there has been a lot of coastal development since then. We will probably see a lot of beach erosion along the Outer Banks.
On top of the tides and winds we will also have to deal with the rainfall. Here is the forecast for rain totals from HPC for Tuesday through Friday:
Several inches of rain are forecast for Southeast Virginia. We could see a possible 5-7 inches across parts of Northeast North Carolina. If the track of the low changes, then these numbers will shift around. A Flood Watch is posted, due to rainfall, for most of the viewing area through Thursday. So this rain could also aid in the flooding. The rivers could discharge a little more into the Chesapeake Bay and add to the tidal flooding a little.
So let’s sum up some things. We are expecting a Nor’easter to interact with an area of high pressure and bring at least moderate-severe tidal flooding to the region. Rain from the system could create some flooding away from the waterways. This is not as definite as the tidal flooding. Winds will be gusting between 40-50mph near the coast. Gusts could be 30-45mph inland. The main reason that there will be a problem is due to the blocking nature of the storm. It will sit relatively in the same region for several days. The persistent winds stack up the water in the bay and produce a lot of wave action along the coast.
With the leaves falling off the trees gutters may become clogged and add to the problem. So please clean them out if there is one near your home. Also, remove lawn furniture from the yard and put it in the garage. Garbage cans too. Now’s a good time to review your flood insurance policy in case the worst happens. Stay tuned to the forecasts as there will be changes in the details. Overall though, the models are agreeing that this will be a significant event. Be safe everyone.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
I was just looking at the extratropical storm surge prediction chart that you included a link in your blog. I was wondering if you could explain to me why there is such a difference in the Hampton Roads Chart vs Gloucester Point. We live in Seaford on York Point (near the Poquoson River), would the Gloucester Point Chart be a more accurate representation and forecast for our location.
Thanks for any info, we really appreciate it!!
I have one more question, I was wondering if you had a chart that showed the tide comparisons for the Feb 1998 nor’easter, Isabel, Ernesto and the Nor’easters in Oct and Nov of 2006. I have a chart that shows the levels at Sewells Point for Isabel at 8, Oct 2006 at 6.5, Nov 2006 at 6.8. But I don’t have the 1998 levels. It would be a lot of help since we were in our house in 2006 but not in 1998 to see what we could expect. Thanks so much for any help you can offer.
Thanks for keeping us posted!
John,
In the Fox Hill area Isabel was much worse in flooding than the Ash Wednesday storm. Also didn’t we have a Nor’easter in November of 2006 that was pretty bad also?
Love watching your weather reports!
how high was the tide level during hurricane isabel?
It sounds like Isabel on the Outer Banks. We thought about driving to Richmond tomorrow??
I would not go to Richmond tomorrow I would cancel it. Stay safe, ocean is on Highway12, cook a good home cook meal, and enjoy your family. TC everyone
Nor’easters can be a real disastor, nothing to srug off. I lived through the March 1962 storm and flood on Chincoteague Island. I was 12 and will never forget the water comming into the 1st floor of our house, the coffens and dead animals in the waters surrounding our home. No power, heat or drinking water for 3 days.
KD4NVM
Skywarn Cord, Accomack County, VA.
Well, I’m off to work.
I was wondering if anyone could tell me how bad it is in va beach? I have a dr’s appointment at 12 today.
We get the seriousness of the “Nor’Easter”, however, it’s REALLY NOT necessary to remain on the air all morning/day. Many of us know how to go about learning what to expect and how to obtain info without being forced to watch you guys blab ALL morning. I will admit though, watching Cheryl Tan teach how to blog on your site was comical.
Please, please, get off the air.
hey is there anything yall can do about nnps being in school? im getting scared because of the wind,and my school is leaking everywhere and i really dont think it was a good idea for us to be in school today!
I would love to know how much rain we got with the N’eastor in Oct/nov 06 as i live on the blackwater and it flooded alot. Do not know where to check.
I don’t know what my comment is awaiting moderation means.