POLLS:

The Washington Post Poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell moving ahead. As I reported last week, this is a critical time in the Gubernatorial race. Voters usually make decisions in the 3rd and 4th week before the election. As of this writing on 10-10, we have 24 days to election day, and Post gave McDonnell some great news. He has clearly moved ahead in the race. The Post poll shows McDonnell with a 53-44 lead. REASONS: As we’ve reported, Deeds needs African American turnout to win. He’s done if he doesn’t get at least 60 percent voter turnout in that community. What do we know? We know Deeds did not do well in that community in the Primary. We know former Governor L. Douglas Wilder is not campaigning for him. We now know a source inside the OBAMA White House is quoted as saying, “Creigh Deeds has not been the world’s greatest candidate, that’s for sure,” one senior administration official said. Post Poll: McDonnell 53- Deeds 44: Lt. Governor Bolling 49 Wagner 40 Attorney General Cuccinelli 49 Shannon 40. Could it be a GOP sweep?

MESSAGE TO DEEDS CAMPAIGN:
Secure your base. You absolutely need to spend time campaigning in the Hampton Roads African American Communities to counter McDonnell’s strength in this region since he’s from Virginia Beach. Yet, look at Deed’s public schedule this weekend: Henrico County, Petersburg-with Tim and Daphne Reid, Suffolk, Alberta Va, Emporia. No Hampton Roads.

PALIN OUT:
Source claims McDonnell campaign told Sarah Palin to stay away. Politico reports “The governor offered her assistance,” said Palin adviser Meg Stapleton. “The ball is in their court.” McDonnell trying to stay as close to the middle as he can get. Has momentum, and doesn’t want to mess it up.

WAGNER ENDORSED:
Jody Wagner endorsed by the The Hampton Roads Business PAC for Lieutenant Governor. The Business PAC is a public policy committee of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce. No surprise because Wagner is a 27-year resident of Virginia Beach and a small business owner.

OUR FRIEND JOHN WARNER IN TOWN:

Former U.S. Senator John Warner was in town, and I asked him about the political climate in Washington and in Virginia. Warner said, “Andy, there’s too much political fighting to get anything done…too much anger…there needs to be a new level of bi-partisanship.” That is a very interesting observation from a man who served in the Senate 30 years. The observation is this: with all the hoopla over President Obama and ‘time for change’ after all is said and done in Washington, the more things change….the more they stay the same. By the way, Senator Warner looks great. In his 80th year he is strong, sharp, funny, in his element. He is going around the world talking about Global Warming.

POLITICAL COMMERCIALS; TRUTH TRACKERS:

Every Wednesday on WAVY-TV I will report on the Campaign Commericals.
This week the ads once again defined by two issues: Deeds hitting McDonnell on his 20 year old thesis. McDonnell hitting Deeds on raising taxes which is an old bullet in the GOP arsenal

The ads are pretty much true. McDonnell did write on page 40 of his thesis at Regent University, “a new trend of working women and feminists that is ultimately detrimental to the family.” He can’t explain it except to say, “If anyone interprets this that I am opposed to women in the work place then I am sorry because that is not what I believe.” Incidentally, in case you want to know that first McDonnell statement came after this one,
“federal child-care programs cost more than $6.9 Billion in 1988.”
The point of the statement is according to McDonnell if a parent were at home, likely the woman, we would spend less tax dollars on federal child-care.

McDonnell counters the Deeds’ campaign showing working women who support McDonnell. The problem is they come from the State Attorney General’s Office that McDonnell once led. State conflict of interest laws prohibit state workers from openly working and promoting political candidates. The current State Attorney General and McDonnell ally Bill Mims says conflict of interest was not violated because it is true the workers were off the clock when taping the ads.

McDonnell’s big issue against Deeds seems to be taxes. A Deeds’ ad profiles support from U.S. Senator Mark Warner who is also a former Governor, AD: “Creigh Deeds will keep taxes low,” Warner says in the ad. It is true, however, that Deeds has said he will support bi-partisan supported taxes specifically for transportation. He also received loud applause from a recent Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce event when he said “We have to be serious about finding new money for roads.”

McDonnell is now running an ad that shows Deeds having a tough time explaining his position. He is surrounded by reporters who are peppering him with questions about taxes after a September debate. Deeds is heard saying in the AD: “I meant in the general sense of the term. In the general term, that I’m not going to raise general fund taxes.” The ad pounces on Deeds who seems to be hemming and hawing whether he supports raising taxes for roads, AD: “I know we are going to have to raise money for transportation,” Deeds admits.

That’s this week’s blog from the Campaign Trail- I’m political reporter Andy Fox.