Over the past several days, the computer models have had trouble building a consensus on what the storm would do. Once Danny organized itself enough to become a tropical storm, the forecast models have had a better starting point…and a better idea of where this thing is headed!

I had a look at some of the newer model runs before I went out the door Wednesday night, and consensus now continues to build; Danny is likely to move just off the coast of North Carolina, then scoot north-northeastward past Cape Cod and into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Here’s the 11:00 PM forecast map from the National Hurricane Center:

(Bigger, better picture of above here)

If all goes as this map indicates, the effects from Danny should be relatively minor. High surf and rip currents are very, very likely from this scenario. It is somewhat likely that we could see some tropical storm force winds of about 40-45 mph. In the less likely, but entirely possible category…we could see some spotty heavy rain (~2″) mainly near the coast. Tidal flooding is very likely, but it should be relatively minor.

Timing the movement of Danny may be problematic, but it does appear that a timeframe from the predawn hours through the afternoon on Saturday seems most probable.

The above scenario is completely dependent on Danny “behaving” itself…and completely following the above Hurricane Center track and timing. Of course, that track is subject to change. So any deviation to the west or east makes for an entirely different ball game.

The National Hurricane Center map from above is largely based on forecast models from the NHC, the National Weather Service, academia, and other countries, etc. Each model has its own biases and peculiarities that must be taken into account. Here’s a bunch of forecast models and their tracks:

(Bigger, better picture of above map available here)

You will note that the vast majority of these are pretty much right down the line…and out to sea. The one “outlier” here is the UKMet (blue line over OBX), but this model run was from 12:00 GMT (8am, Weds.) and is the oldest model run on the chart. All of the newer model runs continue to push Danny past the North Carolina coast and out to sea.

Once again, nothing is “written in stone” on Danny quite yet; the forecast track could still be significantly off. But the models have now continued to trend eastward and out to sea for Danny. That’s a hopeful sign…and one that we all hope will continue!