Friday morning started a little different than most of my Friday mornings. I was up and at the station early to pick up my camera and head down to Elizabeth City. I was tasked with completing a ride-along with the Elizabeth City Coast Guard and shooting video of the flight.  The Coast Guard crew were heading up and down the East Coast to issue a marine warning about Tropical Storm Danny. (I have to admit that I, not being a seasoned photographer, was so worried about getting enough video, that prior to the flight, I didn’t even think twice about what the day had in store for me.)

I arrived at the Coast Guard base about 7:45a and was immediately asked if anyone told me to pack my lunch (of course they didn’t!) and informed that it was going to be a ”long day”. After a quick stop at the exchange where I purchased enough snacks to get me through the day, I met the Commander (CDR Bruyere) and Co-pilot (Lt. Davis) of my flight. We boarded the HC-130J Hercules aircraft, and after a few routine checks, we were on our way. The flight began about 9am and we started heading south towards Wilmington, NC. 

Our "ride" for the day!

Once we arrived in the Wilmington area and positioned ourselves about 100 miles of the coast, AMT2 Brandon Kelly began transmitting the Urgent Marine Information Broadcast every 15 minutes on VHF-FM channel 16, the marine band radio emergency channel.  The warning stated that Tropical Storm Danny was about 24 hours away from the East Coast of the United States and included wind speeds, direction and speed at which TS Danny was traveling.     

My view from the flight deck/cockpit!

From Wilmington we headed straight up the East Coast to New York. When we arrived in New York, I thought to myself that this flight was a “piece of cake.” Little did I know that we were only HALFWAY through our SEVEN (yes 7!) hour flight and that we still had to go all the way back down to Wilmington. Now, one would think that being in a plane that big, motion sickness, dizziness and headaches wouldn’t be a problem… well think again! After 5 hours of being in flight(and flying through numerous thunderstorms), motion sickness got the best of me (no I didn’t get sick [THANK GOODNESS], but I did have a MASSIVE headache). When I told the crew members what was wrong, they assured me that if I put on the oxygen mask then it would solve most, if not all, of my problems, boy were they right! (I guess these guys haven’t been in the Coast Guard this long without learning a few “tricks of the trade”!)

Nice mask, huh?!?!?

In all, we didn’t see many boats on the water (only about 15 along the East Coast). The Coast Guard feels like their mission was a success. Commander Bruyere stated that he was happy that most of the mariners took the precautions necessary for the upcoming storm and stayed off the water for the day.

We landed back at the Elizabeth City Coast Guard base around 4pm on Friday afternoon. During my 45 minute drive back to the station, I couldn’t help but think that a 7 hour flight would have me halfway to Europe or already on the West Coast of the United States (and laying on the beach) or almost in Hawaii.  BUT I figured I can’t complain too much, but home wasn’t such a bad place to land!  (Let’s be honest, by that time, I was just happy to be on the ground!)

The crew of flight 2001 was wonderful. CDR Bruyere and Lt. Davis, were very hospitable and great in answering all of my questions. The guys in the crew made sure that I understood what was going on and took time to explain everything to me! I can’t thank them enough for their warm welcome… they even let me check out the view from the co-pilot’s chair (actually I snuck in while he was “stretching his legs”!!!!)

I got to sit in Lt. Davis' seat!

Thanks guys!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi everyone…..

We get quite a few calls here at 10 On Your Side regarding unwanted robocalls.  You know those annoying calls right in the middle of dinner.  Those telemarkers will now have to get written permission from you before calling.

Kelly Welsh

kelly.welsh@wavy.com

Check out the latest release from the FTC.

For Release: 08/27/2009
New Rule Prohibiting Unwanted “Robocalls” to Take Effect on September 1
Telemarketers Must Obtain Prior Written Approval from Consumers Who Want to Receive Such Calls
Beginning September 1, 2009, prerecorded commercial telemarketing calls to consumers – commonly known as robocalls – will be prohibited, unless the telemarketer has obtained permission in writing from consumers who want to receive such calls, the Federal Trade Commission announced today.

“American consumers have made it crystal clear that few things annoy them more than the billions of commercial telemarketing robocalls they receive every year,” said Jon Leibowitz, Chairman of the FTC. “Starting September 1, this bombardment of prerecorded pitches, senseless solicitations, and malicious marketing will be illegal. If consumers think they’re being harassed by robocallers, they need to let us know, and we will go after them.”

The new requirement is part of amendments to the agency’s Telemarketing Sales Rule (TSR) that were announced a year ago. After September 1, sellers and telemarketers who transmit prerecorded messages to consumers who have not agreed in writing to accept such messages will face penalties of up to $16,000 per call.

The rule amendments going into effect on September 1 do not prohibit calls that deliver purely “informational” recorded messages – those that notify recipients, for example, that their flight has been cancelled, an appliance they ordered will be delivered at a certain time, or that their child’s school opening is delayed. Such calls are not covered by the TSR, as long as they do not attempt to interest consumers in the sale of any goods or services. For the same reason, the rule amendments also do not apply to calls concerning collection of debts where the calls do not seek to promote the sale of any goods or services.

In addition, calls not covered by the TSR – including those from politicians, banks, telephone carriers, and most charitable organizations – are not covered by the new prohibition. The new prohibition on prerecorded messages does not apply to certain healthcare messages. The new rule prohibits telemarketing robocalls to consumers whether or not they previously have done business with the seller.

Under a previous rule that took effect on December 1, 2008, telemarketing robocall messages by businesses covered by the TSR must tell consumers how to opt-out of further calls at the start of the message, and provide an automated opt-out mechanism that is voice or keypress-activated. Prerecorded messages left on answering machines must also provide a toll-free number that connects to the automated opt-out mechanism.

After September 1, consumers who receive prerecorded telemarketing calls but have not agreed to get them should file a complaint with the Commission, either on the donotcall.gov Web site or by calling 1-888-382-1222.

The Commission’s 2008 press release announcing the changes to the TSR’s prerecorded telemarketing provisions and a link to the related Federal Register notice can be found on the FTC’s Web site at:http://www2.ftc.gov/opa/2008/08/tsr.shtm.

The Federal Trade Commission works for consumers to prevent fraudulent, deceptive, and unfair business practices and to provide information to help spot, stop, and avoid them. To file a complaint in English or Spanish, visit the FTC’s online Complaint Assistant or call 1-877-FTC-HELP (1-877-382-4357). The FTC enters complaints into Consumer Sentinel, a secure, online database available to more than 1,500 civil and criminal law enforcement agencies in the U.S. and abroad. The FTC’s Web site provides free information on a variety of consumer topics.

Enjoy the last few days of summer vacation.

School has started for some, school is about to start for everyone else.  We are in anticipation mode at our house.  My oldest is about to start first grade!  Where does the time go?

Back to school also  means you’ll have a little extra company on the roads as you head out in the mornings.

Those bright yellow school buses, pretty much parked during the summer, are getting revved up once again.

So it’s a good time to remind folks of the rules that are always in effect when kids get back into the classroom.  They do have to get there safely.

First, stop when the buses do.  It’s the law.  Your wait begins once that stop arm goes up–all the way until that stop arm drops back down.  We all dislike getting behind a stopped bus, but it’s the law.  Plus, these kids need the time to get back on the sidewalk!

A reminder that the speed limit is 25 miles per hour near schools.  Those slow zones are marked off by street signs.

We all need to be more aware, especially at home.  That’s because in talking with school officials, they tell me the majority of accidents involving buses don’t happen on the highways.  They happen in the neighborhoods.  They are caused by people who aren’t paying attention and who hit stopped buses.  It’s a busy time of year, but not that busy.

Cheers to you all.  Wishing you a successful start to another great year of school!

Get ready for a taste of fall!  A cold front moved through Hampton Roads today and cooler air is filtering in behind it.  Temperatures on Monday will likely hold in the middle 70s. 

At the same time, an area of low pressure is riding up along that cold front (which is now becoming stationary over northeast North Carolina).  That low pressure system will bring us rain mainly after midnight through Monday.  The steadiest rain will be found across North Carolina with occasional showers farther to the north.  The winds will kick up as well.  Expect NE winds 10-25 mph with higher gusts.  Tides will run about 1 foot above normal Monday evening through Wednesday. 

For the first time in a long time, make sure you have both your umbrella and a jacket on Monday.

Monday's Forecast Map

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

A cold front will move through today which will drop some of the temperatures in the area.  The humidity will also begin to drop.  However, a few showers and storms are possible this afternoon as well along the boundary. 

Tomorrow will be raw.  Highs will be in the 70s.  Winds NE 10-20mph.  Plus lots of rain.  We won’t be used to that type of weather.  So make sure you pull out the warm rain jackets and umbrellas.  I love warm weather, but I am actually looking forward to the cool down.  I want to save some money on my power bill and stop running the air conditioner all day and night.  Nobody should have to run the heat though.   Not yet anyway. 

Also, we are in 4th place for the wettest August on record.  We have a chance for some rain today and tonight.  I really doubt we’ll see first or second place.  Maybe we’ll move up to 3rd place. 

 Year/ Rain
1942/ 15.61
1992/ 14.32
1933/ 13.13
2009/ 12.89
1990/ 11.85

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Danny has been downgraded to a depression.  It is moving quickly off to the northeast.  Impacts were minimal as expected.  It passed about 70-100 miles offshore.  We did have some wind gusts last night around 30mph over the Outer Banks.  Winds today will be pretty light today out of the west.  Waves will be great for the ECSC today.  However, there is a high threat for rip currents, so surfers use extreme caution.  Swimmers please don’t go in.  We will still have a chance for some scattered showers and storms later today from an upper level system.  Not from Danny. 

A cold front will move in tomorrow.  We’ll heat up a little before it gets here.  Then the temperatures come on down… Upper 70s for highs Monday and Tuesday.  Maybe some mid 70s.  Lows will be in the 60s.  There is a chance for some showers Monday through Wednesday as the front is expected to hang up near our region.  But I am having trouble believing that this cool of an airmass will stop just south of here.  So we’ll see. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

As far as any life-threatening effects from Danny, we’re likely to see heavy surf and rip currents. This definitely means stay off the water (no boating!) and stay out of the water (no swimming past knee deep!). We lost two people on Friday to the sea…and the ocean will definitely be more dangerous for Saturday! Tidal flooding should be relatively minimal.

Otherwise, Danny’s going to be a rain-maker. Bands of tropical rain are moving northward through the region and will likely continue into Saturday morning. Some of these rain bands could produce torrential downpours with 1″-2″ of rain per hour; that kind of quick downpour could create some localized street flooding. Thankfully, it’s overnight and on Saturday morning…and not during a weekday rush hour.

I’ll be on-duty following the stormy weather through around 3:00 AM, Saturday. At that time, Jeremy Wheeler will be in to monitor the situation. We’re not really expecting any weather that’s too terribly dangerous…just an abundance of caution. And we’re here for you, if needed.

Danny was still a tropical storm this morning, but barely.  Hurricane hunters flew into Danny earlier and found a disorganized system with winds around 40mph near the center.  Remember, you need 39mph winds to have a tropical storm.  So it was almost downgraded to a depression.  That is great news.  Also, there is some pretty good wind shear biting at Danny from the West.  It looks like there is some pretty good shear north of its location too.  That may keep Danny from strengthening much further, despite it being over warm Gulf Stream Waters.  Check out this grahic:

This is a water vapor image. It’s basically the water content in the upper level of the atmosphere.  It’s almost like taking an x-ray of big storms.  I’ve also put some arrows on there representing the winds/shear.   There is an upper level low over Atlanta that will bump Danny out to sea.  Danny is expected to start moving north then northeast later today.  Danny’s movement and formation has been erratic.  So it wouldn’t surprise me if Danny throws us a couple more curveballs before he’s done.  We do need to stay tuned.  Here’ the latest track of Danny:

You can see that the center of of the storm is expected to pass by about 100-200 miles offshore.  If it follows this course, then we should have minimal impacts on the area.  We will have some big waves for the East Coast Surfing Championship this weekend, But we will also have a high threat for rip currents.  On Saturday Danny will be moving away.  So we won’t have the southeasterly swells that we will see today and tonight.  As far as winds go…  There is a tropical storm watch from Duck N.C. down to Hatteras.  That is mostly in case Danny changes his track.  If it does track further west, then a warning may be posted.  For now I’m expecting some wind gusts to around 30mph on the Outer Banks. That’s about it.  Tidal flooding should not be an issue.  We will see scattered showers and storms this afternoon.  Mostly from the thick moisture, not from Danny itself.  Dewpoints are in the mid-upper 70s.  (77 here at the station).  That’s high.  We could see some more street flooding in a few areas, so be on the lookout. 

After this system moves on, we will look forward to a cold front which will bring us some relief from the heat and humidity.  Highs next week are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much lower humidity.  Sounds like football weather to me.  Here’s the latest 7 day forecast:

Meteoroligst: Jeremy Wheeler

You can see by the above graphic that Hatteras is on the edge of the cone of uncertainty on Friday night.  This reddish/purple colored area is the possible path that Danny could take. The green line in the middle is the most likely path.  The models mainly keep Danny offshore.  However, the Navy model and the NAM (North American Mesoscale model) have been consistently bringing Danny across the Outer Banks region.  Even a tad inland.  The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Lab Model) and most of the others keep Danny well out to sea.  Here is a look at the latest forecast models:

Each line is a separate model.  Again most of them swing Danny out to sea.  Regardless of the track we will see some big waves again and a high threat for rip currents.  I saw a mention of possible 10 ft waves across the Outern Banks in one of the discussions.  Remember with Bill we were expecting 12-17ft waves.  We probably saw 8-12ft near the shore based on photos and video with higher waves offshore.  Rain will be heavier and more widespread if Danny moves closer to the coast.  If it stays offshore, then the rain coverage will go down.  Also, if Danny moves over Hatteras, then we will see possible wind gusts between 30-45mph.  Mostly likely over the Outern Banks.  If it stays offshore, then 20-30mph gusts at the highest.  Winds of course won’t be as bad inland.   

  The reason Danny’s track shifted back west a little this morning was due to a western wobble.  If this western movement continues, then the track will probably shift west as well.  The motion is erratic and difficult to track.  It’s probably going to be difficult for the models to get an accurate forecast until Danny becomes more steady.  An upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) is expected to help bump Danny to the northeast on Saturday.  That has not changed. 

Stay tuned to WAVY-TV for the latest updates on Danny.  Residents along the Outer Banks should at least prepare their hurricane kits.  You should have it ready anyway, so now is a good time.  Danny is moving over some warm waters.  So it could strengthen into a hurricane in the next 36 hours.  Everyone should monitor the weather over the next 24 hours.  Especially coastal residents.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Over the past several days, the computer models have had trouble building a consensus on what the storm would do. Once Danny organized itself enough to become a tropical storm, the forecast models have had a better starting point…and a better idea of where this thing is headed!

I had a look at some of the newer model runs before I went out the door Wednesday night, and consensus now continues to build; Danny is likely to move just off the coast of North Carolina, then scoot north-northeastward past Cape Cod and into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Here’s the 11:00 PM forecast map from the National Hurricane Center:

(Bigger, better picture of above here)

If all goes as this map indicates, the effects from Danny should be relatively minor. High surf and rip currents are very, very likely from this scenario. It is somewhat likely that we could see some tropical storm force winds of about 40-45 mph. In the less likely, but entirely possible category…we could see some spotty heavy rain (~2″) mainly near the coast. Tidal flooding is very likely, but it should be relatively minor.

Timing the movement of Danny may be problematic, but it does appear that a timeframe from the predawn hours through the afternoon on Saturday seems most probable.

The above scenario is completely dependent on Danny “behaving” itself…and completely following the above Hurricane Center track and timing. Of course, that track is subject to change. So any deviation to the west or east makes for an entirely different ball game.

The National Hurricane Center map from above is largely based on forecast models from the NHC, the National Weather Service, academia, and other countries, etc. Each model has its own biases and peculiarities that must be taken into account. Here’s a bunch of forecast models and their tracks:

(Bigger, better picture of above map available here)

You will note that the vast majority of these are pretty much right down the line…and out to sea. The one “outlier” here is the UKMet (blue line over OBX), but this model run was from 12:00 GMT (8am, Weds.) and is the oldest model run on the chart. All of the newer model runs continue to push Danny past the North Carolina coast and out to sea.

Once again, nothing is “written in stone” on Danny quite yet; the forecast track could still be significantly off. But the models have now continued to trend eastward and out to sea for Danny. That’s a hopeful sign…and one that we all hope will continue!