The Basics:  Yesterday we had some severe weather warnings, but they were well north and south of the metro.  This morning we had some showers and storms, but the bulk of it was south of the metro.  (See a theme here?)  The wording for our weekend forecast has been changing over the past 24 hours.  The previous forecasts were looking pretty dry.  Now, we have a chance for some thunderstorms in the afternoons/evenings for Saturday and Sunday.  If I were on stage right now, then you would probably throw some tomatoes.  I will say however…they are low chances(About 20-30%).  Overall, I think it will be good.  Temperatures will come up again into the 90s.  Sunday is looking like the hottest day (Low-Mid 90s).

The More Technical:  Having said the above…It’s tough calling for more rain chances. Because when we look back, the call for 20-30% chances have had little payoff this week.   A lot of people have been saying “It’s Summer.  You’re supposed to have pop up showers and storms”.  While that is true, we have had a lot of fronts which have moved in and either died out or lingered.  That’s something that we usually see in May or early June, and it has really created the chances for rain.  The position of  fronts dictates where storms will occur.  Compared to mid-latitude lows, fronts are small systems which are difficult for models to predict.  Our in-house model is a higher resolution as is the Hi-Res WRF (Weather Research Forecast Model).  They do a pretty good job, but they are based off of broader models.  So if the broader models are off, then the more refined models will be off too.  So we’ve been trying to pinpoint the forecast as best we can.  Rather than just say possible pop-up showers and storms each day.  Whatever happens I’ll be watering my lawn.  Maybe that will egg on the rain. 

On a side note the tropics are still quiet.  Vacationers to the Caribbean have had little worries lately.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler