First off, let me say that when you have a baby, you should expect a large sleep deficit.  So in the last post when I wrote poop-up shower, I meant no joke.  (spell check didn’t get it because poop was spelled correctly).  Anyway thanks to the viewer that pointed it out, and it’s fixed now. 

Alright now on to less important things.  Yes I said less important.  This is my annual rant about how the hurricane season forecast is out, and I don’t feel that it should even be an element in a newscast.  NOAA is predicting 9-14 tropical storms for 2009, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes.  Last year there were 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.  Here’s the link to the press release from the Associated Press: Hurricane Season 2009   I also found a great resource to check out last year’s hurricane climatology and how the forecast panned out.  It’s on wikipedia.  It also compares the numbers to the average.  (NOAA’s and Colorado State’s averages).  Here’s the link for that:  Wikipedia 

  In the past I’ve mentioned that seasonal forecasts come out a few times during the year from different sources.  Colorado State and NOAA are the two main sources.  There are also accuweather and other various institutions which have tried to gaze into the crystal ball.  However, I still think that it is unnecesary.  The forecasts call for some degree of activity above or below the seasonal average.  The cliche though has become “All it takes is one bad hurricane in your city to make a bad year”.  Doesn’t that common sense notion negate a seasonal forecast?  How much money and resources have gone into these long season predictions?  They come out before the hurricane season starts.  CSU even puts out a forecast early in the year.  This can create a fear in people way before there is ever any threat.  By the end of the season people usually seem burned out on hurricane information.  For instance, by the end of 2005 we were saying ” Yep! Well we’ve got another hurricane, here we go again”.  Now to be fair, I imagine somehow that state and federal resources are allocated for mitigation and response based on the forecast.  I’m sure insurance companies use the information to the nth degree.  However, on a citizen level,  if a forecast comes out for an above average season then do we go out and overly boost our inventories of food and water?  Should we do the opposite for a below average season prediction?  Simply..no.  We should be prepared as if every season could be a bad season.  We should always have an emergency kit.  Coastal communities/residents should always have a plan. 

  Here’s another thought…if the forecast called for another season like 2005 (which was off the charts),  then would insurance rates go through the roof?  Would there be panic?   With the recession in full swing the question also arises… should tax dollars even go into a long season forecast? 

  I’m not throwing ropes over the wall to take down the system,  but I think people should raise more questions.  I also like to be constructive.  So I suggest instead of a seasonal forecast we should focus on a shorter term.  Perhaps a monthly outlook.  They could start out at the start of hurricane season instead of in April or May.  This should help alleviate unnecessary worry, and should help to create better accuracy.  I understand how the forecasts work.  Basically they look at ocean temperatures, upper level winds, and surface winds at certain sectors of the ocean.  These are compared to climatology from those zones.  It’s a good system, but it still needs improvement.  If an El Nino pattern is forecast in the Pacific then that gets factored into the calculations.  But if the El Nino forecast is wrong, then it changes things.  That’s for another blog. 

  Pop a comment on here if you feel one way or the other.  I’ve gotten some good feedback in the past.  Most people said that they thought the forecasts were not needed. 

  I found another article that questions the tradition.  This is from the Houston Chronicle: Houston

On a good note, the forecast is still looking good for the holiday weekend. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler