I walked to lunch today with a friend to downtown Portsmouth and it was very nice outside.  Temperatures were in the low-mid 60s.  The sun was out.  I could get used to this weather.  We’re still on track for warm temperatures today and tomorrow.  A little cooler on Saturday, but still relatively mild.  Then on Sunday the cold returns.  However, will it be cold enough for snow???……

Here’s the 411.  An upper level low will slowly move out of the Pacific Northwest and is expected to move into the Southeast by Sunday.  Here’s a picture on water vapor. The upper low is highlighted:

Remember Water Vapor is similar to an X-ray (different radiation) in that it looks at the water vapor content high in the atmosphere.  This is a great way to show where upper level systems are located.   This system will strengthen and will probably bring us some rain between late Friday through Sunday night.  It is expected to move very slowly.  So if it lingers near the Carolina coasts for a day or two, then we may have some snow in the area.  It could possibly set up a Nor’easter type storm. Looking below, the upper level flow is in arrows. The surface low is the red L.  This is a very general forecast. 

The models differ a little bit, but the GFS and Canadian do advertise some snow.  We’ve talked about the GFS overdoing precipitation for a while now, but it does look impressive.  The weather pattern generally matches between the GFS, European, and Canadian.  It’s too far out for the NAM.  The NAVY differs by making the upper level low a little more open and quicker.  Basically it’s drier with a few scattered snow showers.  I thought about going into more model detail, but I won’t right now.  This thing is over Idaho, and the models have only recently developed it.  So for now let’s just say that there’s a possibility for a Nor’easter type storm Sunday night into Monday.  Please don’t associate the word Nor’easter with monster storm.  Technically a Nor’easter is any area of low pressure with a northeast wind over the forecast area.  You can have a weak Nor’easter.  Plus this might not even materialize.   For those of you thinking that this is a hype thing.  I’ll tell you.  I’m sick of talking about snow.  But I did want to bring you the details.  We’ll update.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler