Again, the weather here for the Super Bowl is still looking great.  See previous post for forecast.  Mild all day long.  Can’t wait.  I need to get out more and get some fresh air.  Too chilly today though. 

The model update:

The basic:  Models are still not too consistent, but they are agreeing a little more.  Most of them have the surface low offshore from Monday night until Tuesday night.  Most of them have some snow with varying amounts.  With this low staying offshore we will have the temps for snow.  The question now is will the low be too far offshore.  Also, will the models completely change again in 24 hours.  Hmm.

The Complex:  The Navy model has dried out almost comletely.  It keeps the low and precip offshore.  I wonder how the terrain fits into it’s solution.  Namely the mountains (orographic).  The Canadian has a good swath of snow with the low offshore.  But it’s hard to tell when/where the changeover will happen.  The NAM has had a couple of runs now. It hits the Appalachians pretty hard, but it also has some snow for us.  It dries us out by Tuesday afternoon.  It keeps the low offshore, but only strengthens it to about 999mb.  Overall it has some light snow for the area. The GFS…Again it is very aggressive with the precip.  It also dumps on the mountains.  It starts us as a mix overnight and then has some heavy snow by Tuesday morning.  It strenthens the low down to about 989mb, but after it moves away.  It keeps the low offshore as well.  It is the snowiest model.  The European (yes I’m starting to look at it more now), looks closer to the NAM than the GFS with the strenth of the low.  The National Weather Service has a rain/snow mix in the morning for the metro.  Then a chance for snow showers in the afternoon. 

Overall:  I’ll say that it’s still far out until Monday night.  A lot can change.  I think this will be a big deal for the Northeast states.  It may be a big deal for the Appalachians too.  GFS has been too aggressive, but it has remained fairly consistent compared to the other models.  Think it has the overall pattern right, but not the precip amounts.  All the models point to a very progressive (fast moving) system.  NAM has a weaker trough compared to the deeper GFS.  Morning GFS just came out.  It is consistent with the overnight run.  Hits the mountains hard.  It still drops snow here, but not as much as the previous run.  Then it bombs out the low to our Northeast.  Don’t be scared!  Bombing out basically means very rapid growth.  I’ll try to update tomorrow. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler