I think I mentioned this last year.  There’s a rule of thumb that some meteorologists use.  If you’re a Pirate’s of the Caribbean Fan, then “It’s not so much of a rule as it is a guideline”.  Jon Cash mentioned it last year.  -If there are thunderstorms in Mid Winter, then you will usually see some snow in the next 10 days.-  We may see some storms today.  It is currently 70 degrees here at the TV station on a January afternoon.   So, to the best of my knowledge…here’s the reasoning behind the “rule”.  You have to have warmth, humidity, and energy in order to create thunderstorms.   Usually a big area of low pressure will drive in the warmth up out ahead of it.  Warm and cold fronts dance around Low pressure areas in a counter-clockwise fashion.  Low and behold (no pun intended) we have a big area of low pressure to our west today.  The warm front has moved through and it feels nice outside.  The humidity is way up.  Soon a cold front will move through and may create a few thunderstorms just ahead of it.   It will get windy.  We may see some gusts to 45mph near the coast.  As the cold air comes in on the back side you can get snow if the moisture and energy linger.  That won’t happen this time.  However, if we have a big low, then we usually have to have a big trough to create it.  Remember that’s a big wave of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  These large troughs keep moving around the Earth and stir things up.  So there will probably be another big system moving within the next 10 days.  Tuesday may be that day.  The models are advertising a strong upper level trough moving through.  A strong low will move very close to the area.  Warm air will slide in ahead of it, but the air should be cold enough for snow on the back side.  I almost wonder if severe weather will be an issue late Monday.  But it’s still early. 

There are some details that have to be said now.  First, We may not get a thunderstorm today.  It is warm and humid for January, but that doesn’t always seal the deal.  Also Tuesday is 6 days away.  The track/temps/etc. can easily change.  Especially since systems have been jumping in and out of the forecast.  A flurry is possible on Friday, but remember last weekend the forecast was calling for a big system for Friday.  Welcome to the everchanging world of the meteorologist.  It’s almost like trying to figure out what is going to happen next on ”Lost”, but less dramatic.