Not-So-Sweet Disguise

March 27th, 2015 at 5:43 pm by under Weather

It’s March 27th disguised as January 27th!

On and off showers..a northerly breeze….but, I think it was temperatures in the 40s that gave it away..

The clouds will drag their heels overnight..We’ll keep a chance for a few showers in the forecast through Saturday morning.  With moisture and temperatures near freezing, it’s possible that we could see some sleet pellets and/or flurries mix in with the raindrops.  It’s not a great chance, but it’s worth a mention.

Future Trak Forecast 4 AM

Future Trak Forecast 4 AM

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM

You can see between 4-7 AM, our Future Trak Forecast model picks up on some splashes of purple and blue, indicating the possibility for some sleet and/or flurries.  Just note that the sleet/flurries are not widespread, so if you’re in the right spot, early enough, you may see some wintry precipitation.

Saturday Morning

Saturday Morning

Cities and towns north and west of the Metro will have the best chances of seeing some sleet/flurries.  Places like: Franklin, Suffolk, Newport News, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Emporia, Petersburg, and Richmond..you could very well see some wintry precip mixing in with raindrops.  We are not concerned with anything sticking to the ground since the ground is too warm.

I’m optimistic that we’ll see some peeks of sunshine Saturday afternoon – we’ll call it partly sunny.  It’s certainly going to be another cool afternoon with highs only in the mid-40s.  Our average high for this time of year is 61°.

We’ll be back under full sunshine on Sunday, but unfortunately, that cool airmass will have the upper hand.  Temperatures will only top out in the upper-40s on Sunday.

Temperatures - Next 5 Days

Temperatures – Next 5 Days

If you’re not a fan of the cool temperatures, no worries, highs will be back in the low-60s starting Monday!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Runners in Hampton Roads, Get Ready for the Weekend…”On The Run!”

March 27th, 2015 at 11:26 am by under Sports

On the Run with Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding

Ready to Go "On The Run!"

Ready to Go “On The Run!”

Another Busy week of Running and Races in Hampton Roads

is coming quicker than you think.  Special Congrats to all of you

who ran last weekend.  Here’s our Video Report for this week:

 

 

Hope you have a great weekend!  Great Stories are coming soon on WAVY.com.

A reminder- If you have an idea for a great story or want to send me feedback, hit me up or leave feedback at the bottom of the page.

If you’re Racing this weekend, be “Fast and Furious!”  ‘Til Next time,  I’ll be looking for you…”On The Run”.

See You Soon..."On The Run!"

See You Soon…”On The Run!”

 

“On The Run” with Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding, here on WAVY.com.


Cold Rain! Boo!

March 27th, 2015 at 7:57 am by under Weather

Before I get to today’s weather blog, I wanted to mention that meteorologist Don Slater did a blog last night about the new Convective Outlooks (Severe Weather Risk Graphics) that are now put out from the Storm Prediction Center.  It is a bit controversial when you factor in how different meteorologists present it, but it is something that we will be dealing with nonetheless.  I’m not a big fan of the new structure.  I think there are too many levels now.  I also think the word enhanced is at the wrong tier.  However, I do like that SPC tried to be more specific in their forecast.   The problem arises when meteorologists change the wording in their presentation (which is allowed).  I think with some tweaking and more discussion, we will get to a more unified message.

Anyway, today we won’t see thunderstorms, but we will see a cold rain.  This morning we started with temps in the 60s. Then temps dropped to the 40s and 50s.  The cold front is moving through northeast North Carolina as I write this.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Through they day the rain will increase.   We’ll see scattered to occasional showers.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

At the same time strong northerly winds (10-20mph with gusts to 25mph) will keep dropping the temperatures.  So by the afternoon our temperatures will only be in the low/mid 40s.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

Keep in mind that it will feel like it is in the 30s with the wind chills.  So make sure you take an umbrella, rain jacket, and maybe even a coat and scarf.  It will be wet for the evening commute as well.  Rain should taper off later this evening.  During the overnight we will hold on to a weak chance for a few showers.  Temps will drop to the mid 30s with a few 40s near the shore.  By tomorrow morning we should dry out quite a bit.  However, some upper level energy will still be around.  This could bring us a few sprinkles, flurries, and/or sleet pellets in the morning.  The trend has been drier on this.  That is good news for some of the weekend events.  I know there are a couple of Easter events already this weekend.  Highs will only be in the 40s on Saturday with a drying afternoon.  Then on Sunday we’ll start with temps in the low 30s.  We’ll rise to the upper 40s with sunshine.  We might see some 50s mixing in as well.

Next week is looking pretty good. We’ll see a lot of 50s and 60s.  We’ll have a nice dry stretch until Thursday.  Rain will move back in by Thursday, but at least we’ll get up to 70 degrees.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Convective Outlooks

March 26th, 2015 at 11:06 pm by under Weather

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is the agency that issues all Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches. And they also issue something called “convective outlooks”. This time of year, these are issued almost daily. The SPC has recently updated its convective outlooks by providing a bit more detail. Basically, it creates more of a visual bulls-eye identifying the expected trouble areas.

Here’s an example:proposed_PWO


No One Likes A Soggy Lunch

March 26th, 2015 at 5:55 pm by under Weather

What’s lunch without a side of heavy rain and hail?

Around Noon, we had reports of heavy rain, thunder, lightning, and small hail in Portsmouth and Norfolk.  The hail and heavy downpours were very brief, but it made for an interesting lunch hour!

This is probably a good time to bring up thresholds for severe storms.  Just because a storm produces heavy rain and hail, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has “severe” qualities.  For a storm to be considered “severe” it must produce at least one of the following:

  1. A tornado
  2. Winds in excess of 58 MPH
  3. Quarter-sized hail

We won’t see any storms this evening, however it will be damp with areas of drizzle and occasional light showers.  As a cold front approaches tomorrow morning, we will see widespread rain develop.  Make sure you have an umbrella as you head out for work or school since we will be tracking the heaviest rain through the morning hours.

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM

You’ll notice that our Future Trak Forecast shows splashes of yellows and oranges, indicating bouts of moderate to heavy rain.  Thunder and lightning is unlikely this time around.

Future Trak Forecast 9 AM

Future Trak Forecast 9 AM

Future Trak Forecast 12 PM

Future Trak Forecast 12 PM

The steady rain will start to move out around Noon.  There will be a few lingering showers through Friday afternoon, but I don’t anticipate soaking wet conditions.

Unlike Thursday, conditions will be quite cool tomorrow.  As the cold front swings through, winds will shift out of the north, drawing in a much cooler airmass.  Temperatures will initially start in the low to mid-50s tomorrow morning, then gradually fall through the afternoon.

Friday Temperatures

Friday Temperatures

You can see the mercury will drop into the low-40s by your evening commute.

As if that didn’t keep the forecast interesting enough..

There will be a chance for some light showers Saturday morning as well.  With temperatures close to the freezing mark, there’s a slight chance we could see some *flurries* north and west of the Metro.  Places like Richmond, Emporia, and Courtland are more likely to see *snowflakes* flying, but the ground is too warm for anything to stick.  Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs only in the mid-40s.

Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days since we’ll be back under the sunshine – it’ll still be cool with highs in the upper-40s.  We’ll trade highs in the 40s for highs back in the seasonable 60s by Monday!

Temperatures - Next 5 Days

Temperatures – Next 5 Days

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Warm With Some Storms, Then Cold Rain!

March 26th, 2015 at 8:37 am by under Weather

Walking out the door wasn’t too bad this morning. Even at the hour that I leave.  We bottomed out in the 50s and 60s this morning.  A warm front has moved into the region.  Plus we had clouds and a good southerly breeze.  At the same time a strong cold front was moving across the Mississippi River Valley.  It caused severe weather and tornadoes across parts of the Plains states.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Today you will notice the humidity increasing.  Dew points are already rising into the the 50s.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds through the day.  When the sun does pop out, the temps should shoot up.  So I’m calling for highs in the upper 70s.  Winds will be out of the south at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts.  Keep in mind that any wind off of the water will be a cooling wind.  Water temps are in the 40s right now.  So places like Cape Charles, Hampton, and some Outer Banks Cities will stay cool due to that effect.  We’ve already seen some scattered showers.  These will continue into the afternoon.  It will be warm and humid enough that we’ll see some thunderstorms forming later today.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The chance for severe weather is very low.  However, we could see some gusty winds as a wind-shift line moves through Hampton Roads.  The highest rain chances will be between noon and 4pm.  Rain will taper off this evening.  Then it will return after midnight.  The cold front will swipe through the area tonight.  Temps will drop sharply.  We’ll bottom out in the upper 40s.  Then we’ll stay in the 40s through tomorrow.  The rain will actually pick up in coverage behind the front.  Typically we dry out behind a front, but sometimes the moisture lingers.  Also a strong upper level trough will dig into the region.  Between today through tomorrow night we could see a half inch up to an inch of rain.  Most of that will fall tomorrow.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The showers will taper off, but will continue into Friday night.  By Saturday morning surface temps will drop to the low 30s.  The upper level trough will still be swinging through, but we will dry out quite a bit by then.  So there is a chance for a few showers, flurries, and sleet pellets in the morning, but it shouldn’t be much.  Maybe an isolated snow shower as well, but limited in area.  The ground temps will be well above freezing.  So anything that falls should melt.  Highs will only be in the low 40s by the afternoon. That is downright cold for this time of year.  We’ll stay chilly on Sunday with sunshine.  Highs will be in the upper 40s.  Then we’ll warm things up next week into the 50s and 60s.  It should be quiet for most of the week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Yes, Some Rain…But Still A Beautiful Day

March 25th, 2015 at 10:38 pm by under Weather

We’re likely to see a breezy, warm day for Thursday. There is a chance for some rain, but it’s not likely that it’ll dominate the day. Look for showers and even a thunderstorm or two between around noon and 3:00 PM. Here’s how it might look by around noon tomorrow:

Future Trak

There is a very marginal chance that a thunderstorm or two could produce some strong, gusty winds. So do watch out for that and do watch Jeremy on Thursday morning and at noon. He’ll show you any stronger thunderstorms moving into the region.

Future Trak2


70, 50, 30, 40, 60

March 25th, 2015 at 5:08 pm by under Weather

Can’t complain about today – we had plenty of sunshine along with more seasonable temperatures!

Highs Temperatures Wednesday

Highs Temperatures Wednesday

We’ll actually trade highs in the 60s for highs in the mid-70s on Thursday.  But of course with the warmer weather, comes the wetter weather – Thursday will not be a washout, however there will be some scattered showers.

Future Trak 12 PM Thursday

Future Trak Forecast 12 PM Thursday

You can see our Future Trak Forecast shows some splashes of green indicating that 4 in 10 chance for a shower.  Don’t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder – there could be an isolated thunderstorm or two tomorrow afternoon.  It’s possible a thunderstorm could produce some gusty winds, so we’ll keep an eye on conditions!  Showers aside, expect partly sunny skies with temperatures warming into the mid-70s.

High Temperatures Thursday

High Temperatures Thursday

Even though temperatures will be well into the 70s, it’s not going to be humid since dewpoints will only be in the mid to upper-50s.

Scattered showers will continue through Thursday evening.  By Friday morning, a cold front will approach Hampton Roads, so that will give us the best chance for widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms.

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM

Future Trak Forecast 7 AM Friday

Make sure you grab an umbrella before you head out Friday since the whole day looks a bit messy.  Expect intermittent showers throughout the day with an occasional thunderstorm.  No strong or severe storms expected.

Future Trak Forecast 12 PM Friday

Future Trak Forecast 12 PM Friday

In the wake of that cold front, temperatures will initially start in the low-50s Friday morning, then gradually fall into the low-40s by your evening commute.

Brace yourself for this next sentence.

With some moisture in the atmosphere and temperatures near freezing, it’s possible we could see some showers and/or flurries Saturday morning.

Yep.

IF you see flurries, don’t worry, the ground is too warm for anything to stick!  I know it’s a jagged pill to swallow, knowing we could from 70s to flurries in just 48 hours!

So glad I’m in the business of sales, not management.

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Ready For Warmth!

March 25th, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

I am ready for some warm air.  Luckily…it’s here…starting today.  At least for a short while.  We started with temps in the low 40s this morning with lots of clouds in the region.  I saw a sprinkle or two on the radar, but there wasn’t much with that.  High pressure was slowly edging away from us to the northeast while a warm front was closing in from the southwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The warm front will lift through late in the day.  This will bring us a few more sprinkles, but it will also warm us up.  Winds will be light and ENE this morning.  They will turn more out of the southeast through the late afternoon.  Skies will go between partly to mostly cloudy.  With the occasional breaks in the clouds we should manage to warm up to the upper 50s to low 60s.  There will probably be some mid 60s over North Carolina.  Tomorrow we’ll be in the warm sector.  Remember, that is the area south of the warm front and east of the cold front.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Temperatures will get to rise up to the mid 70s in many locations.  We’ll see scattered showers at times with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.  It won’t rain the whole day though.  There will be some time when you can get outside and enjoy the warmth.  Winds will run out of the south at 10-20mph.  By tomorrow evening the strong cold front will move in from the west.  We’ll actually see the rain pick up behind the front.  So as the air cools on Friday, we’ll see scattered to occasional rain showers.  A huge upper level trough will ride in behind the surface cold front late Friday into Saturday morning.  If some moisture lingers, like the models are showing, then we’ll have a chance for some flurries and/or mixed precipitation Saturday morning.  Maybe even a light snow shower or two.  This will greatly depend on the amount of moisture around.  The models disagree on this feature.  At this time no model has any big snow in the region or even moderate snow.  There’s still some time before we get there.  I would bet that the air will modify a bit before it drops this far south.  So the models may start to reflect that in some of the short-term updates.  At this time it looks like temps will start in the low 30s in the morning and will only top off in the low 40s Saturday afternoon.  We’ll be dry and chilly on Sunday.  We’ll start in the 30s and highs will be in the 40s once again.  It will be warmer into early next week.

Before I go I wanted you to see a couple of really cool things.  First off…early this month there was a waterspout which made it onto a beach in Brazil.  It really whipped things up as it moved onshore.  I’ve never see a video like this.  Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GuRSwtMvo

Also, I found this recent article about the northern lights.  It is a timelapse of several auroras around the world.  Here is that link: http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/aurora-display/

Enjoy!

It’s really cool that we get to see things recorded like that.  It is a lot more prominent now that most people have smart phones that can take video.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Just A Bit O’ Heat

March 24th, 2015 at 8:32 am by under Weather

It’s a bit draining to deliver the message.  Another cold day, another rainy day, etc.  Don’t get me wrong.  We’ve had a couple of nice days here and there.  But we haven’t had a decent stretch of mild/dry weather in a while. This is the time of year when we get antsy.  We hear that it’s officially Spring, so our minds tend to think that it should just automatically warm up.  That’s usually not the case here in this region though.  We’ve had plenty of cold Marches, and I remember snow in April during the past 10 years.  2007 comes to mind, and I think we had some in either 08′ or 09′ as well.  It is possible to see some flurries in our forecast this weekend, but it’s still a bit early to call that.

First let’s talk about today.  We have an area of high pressure in the region, but we did have a weak mid-level disturbance bring a few sleet pellets and flurries early this morning.  That has pushed out to sea now.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy today.  There will be a breeze out of the northeast, but it won’t be as strong as yesterday.  It will also try to turn a little more from the east.  Highs will be in the upper 40s.  There will probably be a few 50s inland.  In the mean time there is some heat building to our west.  Look at the forecast high temperatures from the GFS model today:

Forecast High Temps

Forecast High Temps

Highs will be in the 50s, 60s, and 70s (orange areas) to our southwest.  This heat is ready to move into our region.  Tonight that move will start to happen.  We’ll still be cool here with lows in the 30s, but temps may rise a bit overnight.  There will be some scattered showers caused by overrunning.  Tomorrow the winds will be more out of the east/southeast.  So we’ll warm up to the upper 50s to low 60s.  A few of the rain showers will linger into tomorrow morning, but they should move out by the mid morning hours.  So Wednesday afternoon should be fairly nice.  The winds will be stronger and more southerly on Thursday.  A warm front will have moved through the region.  So high temperatures will make a run for the mid 70s.  While the temps will be awesome, the rain chances will also be up.  So we’ll see scattered showers through the day with some thunderstorms even during the afternoon.  A strong cold front will move through by Thursday evening.  Then cold air will keep pouring-in into Friday.  Highs will be in the low 50s (which isn’t too bad), but temps will keep dropping.  We’ll be in the low 30s by Friday night.  Then highs will only be in the low 40s on Saturday.  Now there will be some scattered rain showers again on Friday.  Then on Friday night the temps will drop enough to produce a few flurries or sleet pellets.  This will be along with some spotty showers.  The jetstream will take a large dip (trough) over our area.  So this will help to produce a little bit of precip.  The models don’t show much at this time, but it will be something to watch.

We’ll dry out for the rest of Saturday into Sunday.  We’ll still be chilly on Sunday with highs in the 40s again.  This is important because there are some Eastern egg hunts already this weekend.  So check back for updates to the timing of the precip as well as the temps.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler