Perfect Movie Night!

April 25th, 2015 at 8:25 pm by under Weather

It has been a wet, dreary and chilly Saturday across Hampton Roads. High temperatures only maxed out in the low to mid 50s! Average high this time of year is 70°! Unfortunately there were lots of outdoor events going on today. The Tour de Cure and the Suffolk Wine Fest were some of the more popular ones. The Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in Richmond was postponed due to the rain. The race is scheduled to start at 1 PM Sunday. The rain should be done by that time in Richmond, so the weather shouldn’t be a problem for the race tomorrow.

It is going to be a rainy and chilly night across the region as the rain continues and temperatures hover in the 40s. If you get wet, it will feel even colder than that! Sounds like a perfect movie night to me! :) The rain should taper off shortly after midnight, so we should see a break in the activity overnight. But that doesn’t mean we are done with the rain yet!

Future Trak at Midnight

Future Trak at Midnight

A stationary front is draped across North Carolina. We are watching an area of low pressure that is producing rain across Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois. That rain is headed in our direction as the low is forecast to ride along the front to our south.

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

So don’t be fooled if you wake up around 5-6 AM and it is just cloudy outside. Rain will push in from west to east anytime after 6 AM. Make sure you have those jackets and the umbrellas before heading out to those church services. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow morning.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

The area of low pressure will move away from us tomorrow afternoon, so rain will be ending from west to east. Most locations will be drying out by Noon, but some coastal areas could see a few showers linger past 12 PM. The clouds will stick around tomorrow afternoon with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. Even though it has been raining most of the day, we haven’t seen too much rain accumulate in the rain gauges. Most areas have picked up between 0.25″-0.5″ of rain with some isolated higher totals. I think we could see another 0.25″-0.5″ before the rain ends tomorrow afternoon.

Rain Totals So Far

Rain Totals So Far

If you have any outdoor plans scheduled for tomorrow, I would try to push them off until tomorrow afternoon since it will be raining in the morning. Much drier weather is in the forecast next week! Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Bad Timing

April 25th, 2015 at 8:02 am by under Weather

From time to time you’ll hear me say, “it could always be worse”!  This is one of those times.  Even though it’s going to be a damp, dreary, and cool weekend, at least we don’t have to deal with an severe storms or snow!

That’s right.  Snow!

Parts of New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts have seen some snowflakes flying over the past couple of days!

I digress..

We will be tracking dry conditions through the morning hours, so if you have any outdoor activities planned, I would try to limit them between now and 3 PM.  If you’re going to be participating in or watching the Tour de Cure in Suffolk, make sure you have warm layers since it will be cool from start to finish!

Tour de Cure - Today

Tour de Cure – Today

Best of luck to all of the cyclists!  Be sure to say HI to our own Nicole Livas, Jen Lewis, and Ty Lorenzo, the Face of Fox 43!

By Noon, we’ll be tracking mostly cloudy skies across Hampton Roads and North Carolina.  Because of the clouds, it’s going to be cool this afternoon with highs only ranging from the mid to upper-50s.  At least we won’t have much wind out there!

Future Trak - 12 PM

Future Trak – 12 PM

Highs Today

Highs Today

These temperatures will occur around 1-2 PM.  I expect the rain will move in by 3 PM and once the rain starts, that will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees.  (The wet weather will move from west to east, so once the rain starts in Richmond and Franklin, you’ll get fair warning when it’ll be in our neck of the woods!)  By 5 PM, we’ll have light, steady rain with the mercury hovering in the low-50s.  Feel free to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App so you can have the radar at hand anytime you need it!

Future Trak - 5 PM

Future Trak – 5 PM

For the most part, the rain will be light, but I can’t rule out some pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times.  We’ll leave thunderstorms out of the forecast!

By the way, if you’re heading to the Toyota Owners 400 in Richmond, bring a warm jacket and umbrella!

NASCAR Forecast - Saturday

NASCAR Forecast – Saturday

Expect periods of on and off rain from this evening through Sunday morning.

Future Trak - 7 AM Sunday

Future Trak – 7 AM Sunday

We’ll be tracking scattered showers through the first half of your Sunday.  There may be a lingering shower or two tomorrow afternoon, but I’m optimistic things will dry up!  One thing is for sure – we won’t be able to shake the clouds, so once again, it’s going to be cool with highs only in the upper-50s.

Of course, conditions will be a lot nicer for the start of your work week!  Expect more sunshine Monday and Tuesday with temperatures back in the mid to upper-60s!

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Race Cars and Cool Air Stuck in PARK

April 24th, 2015 at 5:59 pm by under Weather

It was a little bit on the cool side today, but hey, at least we had plenty of sunshine!

We’ll put El Sol in our rear view mirror tomorrow..  On the horizon?  Rain and cool temperatures.

Okay Dad, you can turn this car around and drive right back to blue skies..

So here’s the deal – a storm system will approach from the Midwest.  Initially, we’ll start with sunshine mixed in with some high, thin clouds Saturday morning.  The first half of your Saturday will be dry, so if you have any outdoor activities planned, I would try and limit them to the morning hours.

Future Trak - 7 AM

Future Trak – 7 AM

If you’re heading to Tour De Cure tomorrow, cyclist or spectator, make sure you dress warmly since temperatures will start in the 40s and only warm into the upper-50s.

Tour De Cure - Saturday

Tour De Cure – Saturday

The 100-mile race starts at 7 AM and temperatures will only be in the mid to upper-40s in Suffolk.  By the time the 10-mile race starts, the mercury will warm (and I use that term loosely) into the upper-50s.  Our own Nicole Livas, Jen Lewis, and the Face of Fox, Ty Lorenzo will be there!

Clouds will quickly fill in through the morning.  By Noon, we’ll be under mostly cloudy skies, but it’ll still be dry!

Future Trak - 12 PM

Future Trak – 12 PM

The rain will spread from west to east, so once you see rain popping up in Richmond and Rocky Mount, you get fair warning that it’s heading towards Hampton Roads next!  The rain will likely start around or just after 3 PM.  Be sure to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App so you can have the radar at hand anytime you need it!

Future Trak - 5 PM

Future Trak – 5 PM

Our Future Trak forecast shows steady light rain by 5 PM in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.  For the most part, the rain will be light, but I can’t rule out some pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times.  I don’t anticipate and thunderstorms.  In addition to the rain, temperatures will be way cool this weekend!  Highs will leave a lot to be desired..only ranging from the mid-50s to low-60s.  (Low-60s more likely in Chesapeake, Suffolk, Franklin and points south.)

Well….this rain is bad news for anyone that had tickets to the Toyota Owners 400 in Richmond.  It’s not only going to be wet, it’s going to be cool with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Toyota Owners 400

Toyota Owners 400

So 3 things to remember:
1. You’ll need a jacket all weekend.
2. Keep an umbrella handy.
3. I’m just the messenger.

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


So THIS is beach weekend???

April 24th, 2015 at 8:40 am by under Weather

It’s too bad that we can’t use a crystal ball to look into the FAR future to see the weather.  Lots of planning goes into these big events in Hampton Roads.  There are several outdoor events this weekend which will be directly impacted by the weather.  Beach Weekend, the Tour De Cure, 2 March of Dimes walks, a wine festival in Suffolk, and the NASCAR race in Richmond.  So what is going to happen?  ?  ?     Oh right I have to answer.  I’m the blogger.   Uh well  uh… Let me show you some things.  First off this is the satellite/radar from this morning:

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Notice that the area of low pressure in the northeast states is still causing snow showers.  Yikes!  That’s 2 days in a row in late April.  Meanwhile high pressure is building into our region nicely.  This is allowing for lots of sunshine to spread across the area.  With the clear skies, light winds, and dry air we started our day rather cold this morning.  We had some mid 30s in Wakefield.  Upper 30s in Franklin and Gloucsester.  Lots of 40s elsewhere.  The sun is starting to warm things up (a bit).  Today the winds will be out of the north/northwest due to the flow between the high and the low.  The high will keep us dry.  Temps will rise to the low 60s this afternoon.  We’ll stay dry tonight with lows mainly in the 40s.  Then tomorrow things will change.  A mass of warm air will edge towards Hampton Roads.  Don’t get too excited though.  At the surface this air mass will put the brakes on before it gets here.  A warm front will basically become stationary to our south.

Tomorrow's Weather Map

Tomorrow’s Weather Map

However, with the push of warmth and moisture in the upper levels over the cool airmass at the surface (overrunning) , there will be some rain moving in.  It will be dry at the surface.  So some of the rain may not reach the ground at first, but eventually we will moisten up.  Here is what Future Trak shows for Saturday afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm Saturday)

Future Trak (3pm Saturday)

So the first half of Saturday will be dry, but some showers will try to move in sometime between 3pm and 7pm.  After that rain is likely through Sunday morning.  Through Sunday a weak area of low pressure will form along the front and will move east through the area.  This will let the rain continue until at least the midday hours.  It’s possible that the rain could linger longer, but the trend is for a drier Sunday afternoon.  Prior forecasts had the low more to our south.  Lately though, the models have brought the low closer to the region.  So that’s whey the forecast has gotten wetter.  It’s possible that the low could kick out sooner on Sunday.  Then we will be drier.  Stay tuned for updates if you do have outdoor plans.   I’ve got a birthday party with 10 kids.  So I am not immune.

We’ll warm up slightly next week, but highs will still mainly be in the 60s.  The next chance for rain moves later next week.  Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cool Air In The Long Term

April 23rd, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

We are in for a good stretch of cooler temperatures.  Yesterday was the last warm day for a while.  We were in the upper 70s to near 80.  Norfolk International Airport hit 77 degrees.  Then the cold front came through in the evening and caused some spotty showers.   Now the front is to our south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Cooler air is pushing into the region.   I’d say drier air is too, but we were actually pretty dry yesterday.  That’s why most of the rain fell apart in our region.

It wasn’t too chilly this morning, but highs today will only be cooler.  They’ll top off in the mid 60s.  Winds will be out of the north at 10-15mph and could blow at 20mph near the shore at times.  We will be dry today with lots of sunshine.   Notice that there are snow showers to our north.  Whoa!  There has been a lot of cold air in the north-central U.S. recently.   Now it is moving east.  In fact tonight some of our local temperatures will drop to the upper 30s in some of our inland locations.

Tonight's Forecast Lows

Tonight’s Forecast Lows

Along with the colder air, there has also been some some heat in the deep south.  Yesterday this clash of the air-masses caused a lot of stormy weather in the middle part of the country.

yesterday Reports Graphic

NOAA SPC storm reports

Our weather pattern is going to change this week.  The high will stay to our northwest, and the low will drift around eastern Canada.  This will let the cool air continue to pour into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Upcoming Weather Pattern

Upcoming Weather Pattern

For us this means that highs will be in the 60s and lows will mostly be in the 40s for the next few days.  I’m still looking at a weak low to form to our south this weekend.  The models still show this bringing scattered showers to our region late Saturday (probably in the evening) into Sunday morning.  I’m hoping the models change their tune.  It is a weak low after all.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Too Dry For Rain?

April 22nd, 2015 at 9:19 pm by under Weather

In this case…the answer is YES! At least for most areas. Some places in Gloucester County, areas along the Eastern Shore and the Peninsula had a quick passing shower. Becky posted this picture of a double rainbow in Ark (Gloucester County) on our Facebook page. Thanks Becky!

Double Rainbow

Double Rainbow

Most of the rain fell apart or evaporated before reaching the ground across Hampton Roads. We just didn’t have enough surface moisture in place. This is a cool shot looking to the northwest out of Tower Cam 10. The small dark areas extending toward the ground are areas of rain trying to reach the ground. When the rain evaporates before reaching the ground, we call it virga.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

A strong cold front is moving through the region as I type this, so we will hold onto a slight chance for an isolated shower until the front passes. Cooler and drier air will be moving in overnight. As if we weren’t dry enough today! Wind speeds have already come down as they switch more out of the northwest behind the front. The clouds will be clearing out overnight, so most locations should be mostly clear in the morning. However, I think there will still be some lingering clouds across North Carolina. The Lyrid Meteor Shower is at its peak again tonight. Last chance to see some meteors if the clouds clear out in time!

Lyrid Meteor Shower

Lyrid Meteor Shower

Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Thursday morning. Thursday will be about 10-15 degrees cooler with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s. Keep in mind that we were in the upper 70s to around 80° this afternoon. It just didn’t feel that warm because of the low humidity. The unseasonably cool weather will stick around through the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, so don’t put away that light jacket just yet!

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Rain chances are back in the forecast Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday. You may need to bring the rain gear with you are going to the big race this weekend in Richmond. Check back for updates to the forecast.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


A Rapid Warmup, Then A Long/Cool Stretch!

April 22nd, 2015 at 8:46 am by under Weather

This morning started off chilly. We had temps in the 40s over much of the area.  There were even some low/mid 40s in some inland locations.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

I was comfortable with a light jacket.  It helped that the winds weren’t too strong.  However, today things will change….  Dramatically.  First off let me show you the setup.  There is an area of high pressure to our southeast.  It’s giving us a lot of clear skies, but it is sliding east.  Also, there is a strong cold front that I am tracking over the Midwest.

Cold Front In The Midwest

Cold Front In The Midwest

As the front approaches it will drop the pressure a bit.  The high will only slowly edge offshore.  So the pressure gradient will increase between the two.  This will allow the winds to increase.  Now I see different wind speeds in the forecast, but there’s no doubt that the winds will be picking up this afternoon into the evening.  I’m calling for southwest winds at 10-20mph and gusts up to 30mph.  Some models have higher gusts.  Some have less than I have.  Keep in mind that this is before any thunderstorms even arrive.  Thunderstorms?   Yep!  As the cold front gets closer to our region some of the scattered showers will move down with it.  Most of the day we’ll be dry, but between about 5 and 9pm there will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  It is very dry outside right now, and I don’t expect the humidity to bounce back.  So I don’t expect a lot of coverage this evening.  Here is what Future Trak shows at the 7pm hour:

Future Trak (7pm)

Future Trak (7pm)

I’d say about a 40% chance for rain in the evening.  Maybe 50%.  The front will push south of Manteo by 9pm.  The showers will probably fall apart by then.  After that we’ll see that long/cool/dry period.  Highs will be in the mid 60s tomorrow and then low/mid 60s through early next week.  It won’t be cold, but the average high temperature is 70 degrees.  Lows will be in the 40s for many of the days.  There will be a few showers Saturday evening through early Sunday morning, but there shouldn’t be much with that.  There will be a higher chance for rain by the middle of next week.

I found two neat articles about tornadoes this morning.  The first one is a pretty cool one that talks about tornado myths.  I’ve seen a few like this in the past.  Here it is: Tornado Myths. On that note, the same site has an article about a new research project investigating tornadoes specifically in the southeastern U.S.  This is something that really needs to be studied as most studies are about tornadoes in the Midwest and Plains states.  Here is the article about the upcoming project: Southeast Tornado Project.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Drier And Cooler Breezes.

April 21st, 2015 at 8:16 am by under Weather

It’s always fun to get a text at 12:45 in the morning telling you that there is a tornado watch until 5am.  Being the next meteorologist on deck, I decided to get up and check the radar.  Sure enough we had a line of showers and storms flare up ahead of the cold front during that time.  Oy!   So I headed in.  Luckily the storms didn’t produce any warnings in our area, but the rain was very heavy.  Check out the satellite/radar at 3:00am:

Satellite/Radar (3am)

Satellite/Radar (3am)

I did see a couple of reports of small hail, but otherwise it was just heavy rain and gusty winds.  However, there were a lot of severe weather reports in the region.  Mostly over central and western North Carolina:

Storm Reports

Storm Reports

The cold front has since moved through and now we are drying out:

Cold Front Moving Through

Cold Front Moving Through

Winds have turned out of the west/northwest and dew points are dropping into the 50s.  They will keep dropping through the day to the 40s.  So it is going to feel great out there with highs in the low/mid 70s.   The only real negative will be the pollen.  It will be at about an 8 out of 10 today.  Tonight we’ll see clear skies and light southwest winds.  Temps will drop down to the upper 40s to low 50s.   It will get a little chilly.  Plants and pets should be ok though.

Tomorrow we’ll be ahead of another cold front.  However, this time we won’t have the humidity out ahead of it like we did yesterday.  So that should stop any thunderstorms from forming.  However scattered showers are forecast for the late afternoon/early evening.  We’ll cool down for a while behind that front.   In fact…highs will only be in the low/mid 60s for about 5-6 days.  The average high is 69 degrees.  The period will be mostly cool and dry, but a few showers on Saturday as a weak area of low pressure forms well to our south.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Stormy Night Ahead!

April 20th, 2015 at 6:36 pm by under Weather

A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for most of our viewing area until 10 PM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The clouds cleared out and the sun came out today allowing temperatures to heat up into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. Any storm that pushes in before sunset (7:45 PM) will be able to tap into more instability and will have a better chance of turning severe. Any storm that pushes in after sunset will probably not be as strong. The main threat with any storm that turns severe will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph and quarter size hail. Here is the solution from our latest Future Trak computer model. A few isolated discrete storms will be possible between 7 PM-9PM with the activity becoming more widespread from 9 PM-12 AM.

Future Trak at 10 PM

Future Trak at 10 PM

It looks like the storms will become more linear tonight. If that happens, the damaging wind potential will still exist. Rain and storms will come to an end after midnight as a cold front drops southward. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s by tomorrow morning. Tuesday is looking spectacular! Lots of sunshine and lower humidity with highs in the lower 70s.

If you have any storm pictures or damage pictures, please send them to reportit@wavy.com or post to our social media pages. Now is a good time to download the WAVY Weather app, so you can track the storms with us. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be tracking these storms all night and will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Stay tuned!

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Lots Of Heat, Then Strong Evening Storms

April 20th, 2015 at 9:12 am by under Weather

This morning things were heating up on the radars and on the thermometers.  (I’m here all week!).  A warm front was lifting through the region and focused the rain in a line that moved through Hampton Roads.  Here was the view on radar at about 3am:

Radar At 3am

Radar At 3am

We had reports of a few flooded roads as well as 1 report of a tree down in Virginia Beach.  Between last night’s rain and the deluge we had this morning, there was a good amount of rain in the local gauges.  Here are some of the totals:

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Norfolk had 1.04″ inches, but the highest amounts were in Suffolk and Chesapeake with 2.15″ and 2.57″ respectively.   Edenton had a soaker with 2.72″.  Now the warm front is to our north and the rain is offshore to the east.  We’ll see clearing skies today.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20mph.  This is a recipe for maximum warming in the region.  So high temps will rise to the mid-upper 80s.  Along with the heat, it will be fairly humid too.  Dew points will be in the 60s.  Luckily there will be a good breeze.  So that should help to make us feel a little more comfortable.  By this evening we’ll see a return of some scattered showers and storms.  Now the models differ a little on the coverage, but trend is agreed upon.  Here is what our Future Trak computer model looks like at 9pm:

Future Trak (9pm)

Future Trak (9pm)

Some models have more coverage of the thunderstorms.  Ours is a bit more isolated to scattered.  I think there will be more coverage than this, but probably not area-wide.  Regardless, there is a chance for severe weather during the evening.  As I write this there is an enhance risk for severe weather for most of the entire viewing area except there is a slight risk in northeast North Carolina.

Risk For Severe Weather

Risk For Severe Weather

 

The risk may be upgraded or downgraded later today.  Overall there have been changes to the severe weather risk this year that the Storm Prediction Center  (NOAA) puts out.  The risk used to have 3 categories (slight, moderate, high) along with an area of general thunderstorms.  Now the risk is 5 tiered along with the general thunderstorm area.  Here is a graphic that shows the updated version.

Understanding Categories

Severe weather risk categories from the Storm Predicition Center in Normal Oklahoma.

This is good in that we can gauge the risk for severe weather a little better.  The slight risk is less broad now.  The only potential problem is that it may be hard for the public to differentiate between the levels.  Especially when there is a large gradient.  We will likely tweak how we present this information in the future.  Any suggestions would be most appreciated.  You can leave them in the comments below.

Anyway, the main threat from the storms would likely be gusty winds. Some large hail is also possible.  The threat for tornadoes is much lower (though not a complete zero threat).  There should be a decent amount of instability (tendency for storms to form) as well as some decent wind shear (upper level support).   If the timing changes for the storms, then that could change the risk.  For instance, if they are later then it will cool down a bit more.  So the threat may diminish.  A little sooner and the threat could increase.  Stay tuned for updates.

After midnight we’ll start drying out.  Lows will drop to the upper 50s to low 60s.  Then tomorrow the weather looks fabulous.  Mostly sunny with highs in the low 70s.  Lows humidity and west winds.  Nice! The only negative will be the pollen.  It crushed me this weekend.  Course it didn’t help that I was out camping in the woods.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler