Isolated Showers Possible Today

September 20th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

A coastal storm is developing to our south right now. This storm system is not going to be strong enough to cause any major problems this weekend, however, we may see isolated showers later today and tomorrow.

Radar Snapshot at 8am

Radar Snapshot at 8am

The isolated showers are expected to move in to our area after the noon hour today. Sprinkles/Light Rain is what I would expect. This storm system won’t have the energy to produce flooding or thunderstorms. Wind speeds will be Easterly today at 10-20mph.

Future Trak @ 3pm

Future Trak @ 3pm

Tonight we will see mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers are still possible. Tomorrow, the majority of the rain will be over the Outer Banks. Temperatures should still be near 80 tomorrow with westerly winds.

Surf Update:

Sunday’s surf should be pretty fun in the afternoon as this NE swell will still be at its peak. Waves will be 3-4ft.  Rip Current Threats will remain high.

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

We should see more offshore winds tomorrow afternoon/evening which should clean up the surf.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


The Final Weekend Of Summer Coming Up

September 19th, 2014 at 8:59 am by under Weather

That’s right, the fall equinox is on Tuesday next week. So how are we looking this weekend? We will see a mix of cloudy cover and sunshine today.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

Since we are stuck in this pattern again today, temperatures are going to be in the 70s this afternoon. A sprinkle or light shower may popup today with the clouds around noon.

Tomorrow we could also see rain:

Future Trak Saturday at 10am

Future Trak Saturday at 10am

Isolated showers will move inland around 10am tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies are also expected. If you are going to the NAS airshow, keep in mind that the rain will be light and scattered, so the event should still be fun and mostly dry. Showers are possible into the afternoon. Highs should be in the 80s this weekend.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Kayak Event Supports Wounder Warriors

September 18th, 2014 at 5:48 pm by under News

This past weekend I was able to participate in the Ku’ono Paddle Series happening in Hampton, VA. This event had a 2, 6, and 12 mile Stand Up Paddleboard (SUP) and Kayak race all to support the Wounded Warrior Project.

Message from their website:

The Ku’ono Paddle Series is proud to be a Supporter of the Wounded Warrior Project.  Founded in 2003, Wounded Warrior Project’s purpose is to raise awareness and enlist the public’s aid for the needs of injured service members, to help injured service members aid and assist each other, and to provide unique, direct programs and services to meet their needs. What started as a program to provide comfort items to wounded service members has grown into a complete rehabilitative effort to assist warriors as they recover and transition back to civilian life. Thousands of injured warriors and caregivers receive support each year through WWP programs designed to nurture the mind and body and encourage economic empowerment and engagement.

kuono

I finished the 2 Mile Race!

Let me tell you, I haven’t kayaked in over 3 years, so the 2 mile course was all I needed to do. The first mile I felt like a million bucks! Then we had to turn around. As you know there are currents that meander through large bodies of water like the Chesapeake Bay. Well, where we were near Fort Monroe had its own current. I realized that the wind and the current were against me on the second half of the race. I quickly saw myself falling out of it, but I did make it to the finish line and got my celebratory trail mix! This was a very fun event, I hope to see some of you out there next year!

Find out more here: http://www.kuonopaddle.com/home.html

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


What’s In A Forecast?

September 18th, 2014 at 9:29 am by under Weather

The title derives from William Shakespeare’s quote from Romeo and Juliet “What’s in a name?”   There’s more to the forecast than most people realize, and lately some forecasts are pretty much just a name with no real science behind it.  I thought I’d change gears a bit and NOT talk about local weather today.  It’s pretty quiet after all.

So when I forecast I look at a lot of different sources.  I do look at the National Weather Service for information, but that is just one component of my forecast.  I also use various websites to forecast.  Most of these contain model information that is readily available to anyone.  I use one from Penn State that has a lot of the models all on one page.  I used to use one from Unisys all the time, but I haven’t used it lately.   I use the National Hurricane Center website for most of my hurricane information.  I also use the Weather Prediction Center (part of NOAA) for looking at rainfall estimates and surface maps.  On top of that I use our local models that are available through a vendor.  We call our main model Future Trak. Here is today’s example of that:

Future Trak Computer Model

Future Trak Computer Model

While I mainly use Future Trak for rain and clouds.  It can also forecast temperatures, rainfall, humidity, and other variables.  I put the forecast together before the shows.  Then I get all my graphics ready before air.  Some days it is an easy forecast (though that hasn’t been the case for a while).  Many days the forecast is complicated or tricky.  Lately the problem has been that the models have had different opinions on how to handle the humidity in the region.  Some have gone with showers each day.  Some have had drier forecasts.  The geography of this region makes the forecast tough at times as well.  There is of course the ocean which is one of the biggest drivers of weather.  Also there are many large waterways in the region.  There are 2 large Peninsulas (Eastern Shore and the Peninsula).  And finally  the mountains are not that far off to our west.  That can induce drying as downsloping occurs. A slight change in the wind around here can completely change a forecast.  Tides are also tricky and have become more of a factor in forecasting.  Lately we have had a lot of problems with heavy rain falling during high tides.  This has led to more flooding that usual.

While the forecast is tricky at times.  The communication of it is also a challenge.  You can see on the map above that we cover a large area.  We cover from Hatteras NC up to Reedville and Wallops Island, VA.  We forecast as far west as Emporia and Toano.  The heart of the area (Hampton Roads metro) is the main area of focus, but we try to include as much info for others as we can.  I am always careful with my wording, but some days the message can be misunderstood.  On top of talking about weather, I also have to type a lot of weather.  We have forecasts on our website (wavy.com/weather).  Also we do a forecast for facebook and twitter several times a day.  We used to do a phone forecast recording, but now almost everyone has a smart phone and/or computer.  So we don’t do that anymore.  Also, I am on every 10 minutes from 4:30am until 9:00am in the morning (WAVY TV 10 then FOX 43).  Some recorded weather even plays past that during the Today Show.  So folks have plenty of chances to see the forecast.

One big problem that is emerging is that many folks get their forecasts from the internet, and they don’t realize where it comes from.  Especially with the prominence of facebook and twitter.  During some big events (and not so big events) anyone with access to the internet can post their 2 cents about the forecast.  Some folks post more than that and give a full blown forecast.  These forecasts can be about systems that are 6-10 days away.  These forecasts are always apt to change, but many folks don’t understand that.  The problem is that this can detract from our message, and can confuse a lot of people.  If there is severe weather headed this way and people are confused about it, then one day it could even lead to a loss of life.  That’s worst case yes, but still a possibility.  Here is an article that outlines some recent examples of internet forecasts.  Be Careful Who You Trust….. You may recognize the pictures.

So in this changing world, it will be interesting to see how the forecasts change.  It’s possible someday that all meteorologists will be required to have a license.  I have a seal from the American Meteorological Society, but it isn’t required.  Honestly though, that doesn’t guarantee a good forecast either.  It takes a lot of practice.  Recognizing weather patterns is the biggest key to success in this area.  I’ve seen a lot, but I’m always still learning.  Anyway, I hope you’ll learn to appreciate all that goes into a meteorologist’s message, and hopefully you’ll try to track down where your information comes from.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Gray Skies, And Hurricane Intensity

September 17th, 2014 at 8:28 am by under Weather

Once again we are looking at a lot of clouds in the region.  We have a weak area of high pressure to the north with a weak area of low pressure and a stationary front to the south.

Between 2 Systems

Between 2 Systems

The moisture is trying to push north into the high.  So we’ll see a lot of clouds, but not a lot of rain.  There is a slight chance for a shower.  We already saw one this morning over Norfolk and north Virginia Beach.  Winds will be from the northeast at 10-15mph.  This will keep the temperatures down later today.  We’ll see highs in the mid 70s with some upper 70s inland.  Tomorrow the low will move east.  It will push slowly offshore.  This should allow for some clearing, but perhaps not for everyone.  Highs will stay in the 70s.  Overall the models are showing a nice weekend ahead.  Highs will warm from the mid 70s to near 80.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds.  There might be a few showers nearby, but so far they look to be mostly on the edge of the area.  We’ll have updates.

In the tropics…Edouard continues to weaken over the north central Atlantic.  It Is moving pretty quickly away from Bermuda.

Edouard On Satellite

Edouard On Satellite

It still has an eye even though it is moving northeast at about 20mph.  It is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by tomorrow.  It will then become extratropical by Friday.  It’s possible that it will curve south towards the end of the forecast, and it may even try to move back westward.  However, this is pretty far out.  So we’ll see. We will see some higher waves from Edouard today.  Waves will run about 3-5 ft.  The rip current threat will be up today as well.  So be careful swimmers and surfers.

Meanwhile, Odile continues to bring heavy rain to Arizona.  More flooding is expected today as the storm moves north.

Rain From Odile

Rain From Odile

I’ve been trying to think about it…. To my recollection I’ve never met or heard of anyone named Odile.  It has an interesting origin though. Odile origin.

Speaking of tropics.  A new study from Florida State is focusing on a new way to describe hurricane forecasts.  It is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) scale, and it has been around for a while.  However, soon it may be made more available to the public.  Basically the hurricane wind scale just focuses on the maximum winds over a part of the storm.  However, the IKE uses the max winds and the area of those wind speeds.   Here is the article with more information: IKE forecasting. I would most welcome this scale.  Hurricane Sandy would be a great of example of where it would have been very useful.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Brief Warm Up, And Update On Edouard.

September 16th, 2014 at 8:42 am by under Weather

We are running a little warmer today, but it’s not a heat wave.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  We’ve seen a lot of clouds this morning with a few breaks to our west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ve seen a few spotty showers in the region too, but they have been mostly north and south of Hampton Roads.  A cold front is slowly pushing in from the northwest.  It will be here later this afternoon.  We’ll see a few showers along the front, but they should be spotty and light.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with a southwest breeze. Winds will turn out of the north as the front passes.  Temps should hold in the upper 70s for a while as the front sinks south.  Behind the front tomorrow we’ll be in the mid 70s with lots of clouds.  So it’s not a huge difference in temperatures, but we’ll see a small rise today and a dip tomorrow.  The good news is that high temps will stay in the 70s through the weekend.

Hurricane Edouard is an impressive hurricane in the central Atlantic.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

It has a fairly large and distinct eye on satellite.  The sustained winds were up to 110mph.  This put it on the cusp between a category 2 and a category 3 hurricane.  It is forecast to be a cat 3 by later today.  Then it will be a major hurricane.

11 AM Update: Hurricane Edouard has become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. It is currently a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115mph.

Luckily it will stay east of Bermuda.  They will see some waves up to 12 feet today.  Here on the U.S. east coast we’ll see some waves running about 3-5 ft with a few 6 footers possible.  This will be for Wednesday into Thursday.

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

The storm will move into the cooler north Atlantic waters and will become extratropical by early next week.

In the west tropical storm Odile continues to move north of the Baja Peninsula.

Odile On Satellite

Odile On Satellite

It is beginning to fall apart, but it will bring some more heavy rain to the region and to southern Arizona.  Unfortunately, it looks like most of the rain will miss southern California.  The wind has already caused extensive damage over parts of Mexico.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tropics, Coolness, And You Dirty High!

September 15th, 2014 at 9:00 am by under Weather

While there is some quiet weather locally, things are busy in the tropics.  Last night Edouard became a hurricane, and it is now forecast to become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season.  This morning it was over 700 miles southeast of Bermuda and was heading northwest.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

The hurricane will move northward by tomorrow and then northeast.  This track will keep it away from Bermuda.  At least the center.  However, they may still see a little rain and some higher waves from the storm.  The waves will travel (though weaken) all the way to the east coast.  By Wednesday/Thursday the waves will try to rise up to about 3-5 feet (perhaps higher).  There’s not as many swimmers out there right now, but the rip current threat will likely increase.
The storm will eventually become extratropical over the northeast Atlantic by the weekend.

Normally I don’t talk about hurricanes in the Pacific ocean. However, this one is noteworthy.  Hurricane Odile (Oh-Deal) has hit the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico.  It moved ashore near Cabo San Lucas last night.

Pacific Hurricane

Pacific Hurricane

Odile was a major hurricane upon landfall.  It had 115mph.  This tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit that area since satellites began.  The winds have come down a bit, but they are still very strong.  This will create a lot of rain and damaging winds over the region.  The silver lining is that it will eventually bring some rain to the southwestern U.S. Any rain in southern California would be a blessing.  Stay tuned for updates.

Again, our local weather is quiet.  We have a weak or “dirty” high in the region.  This has allowed for some sunshine north with lots of clouds around the rest of the region.

Dirty High Nearby

Dirty High Nearby

Today we’ll go back and forth between partly and mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the mid 70s.  It will be pretty nice out.  Tomorrow a weak disturbance will move into the region.  This will bring a few showers in the morning, and then a few more in the afternoon.  They should be light and scattered.  Winds will be out of the southwest tomorrow.  So highs will rise to the upper 70s to near 80.  We’ll resume with the cool temperatures from Wednesday into the weekend.  There may be a few showers on Thursday, but overall the extended forecast looks quiet.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Fall-Like Weather Continues This Week

September 14th, 2014 at 9:43 pm by under Weather

The weather today was PERFECT in my opinion. Felt more like fall with highs in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. The official start of the fall season begins Monday, September 22, so we are only a week away. Hopefully you had a chance to get outside for a little bit this afternoon.

Sunday Highs

Sunday Highs

Cooler and drier air moved in behind the front last night. Wind speeds have really come down, but the clouds should hang around overnight. The cloud cover will prevent most areas from seeing the air temperature fall all the way to the dew point temperature. But we will see some inland areas drop down into the upper 50s. These inland spots may see some patchy fog develop by the morning. Here are the forecast low temperatures overnight. You may need a light jacket or sweater early in the morning.

Lows Tonight

Lows Tonight

Another pleasant day is expected on Monday! Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity and a light breeze. A cold front will move in early Tuesday morning and bring us a chance for a few showers. The rain doesn’t look like it will be widespread at this time, just a few hit or miss showers.

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

We will dry out Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air will move back in and high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Average high this time of year is 80°.

Tropical Update:

Edouard has strengthened and is now a hurricane. Hurricane Edouard could reach category 3 status and become our first major hurricane of the year by Tuesday. Edouard is going to stay well out to sea, but should bring us higher waves Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

Meanwhile Hurricane Odile is a monster category 3 hurricane spinning in the Eastern Pacific and headed toward Baja California. This dangerous hurricane could make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, a popular vacation destination, tonight or early Monday. This storm will move northwest and parallel the coast of Baja California over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds and coastal flooding can be expected. Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Hopefully those folks have evacuated or are prepared for the worst.

Hurricane Odile

Hurricane Odile

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Rainy Tonight, Pleasant on Sunday!

September 13th, 2014 at 9:19 pm by under Weather

Heavy rain moved in earlier this afternoon and dropped a good amount of rain in a short amount of time. The heaviest rain moved across the Southside first and then moved across North Carolina. Check out some of these impressive rain totals!

Tonight's Rain Totals

Tonight’s Rain Totals

Elizabeth City recorded 2.53 inches and Edenton picked up a whopping 4.16 inches so far over a 2-3 hour period tonight. The heaviest rain has pushed south into the Albemarle Sound, so another round of heavy rain is possible for the Outer Banks before midnight. The rest of the region could see a few more light showers, but no more heavy rain is expected.

Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight and drop temperatures into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning with some lower 60s inland. Winds will stay up tonight out of the north and northeast from 10-15mph. We will start off with a lot of clouds tomorrow morning and then become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Sunday will feel like a typical fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s with LOW humidity. It will feel GREAT! If you have any yard work to do, tomorrow is the day to do it.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Edouard is still spinning in the central Atlantic. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night. This storm will stay out to sea, but should bring us some higher surf Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Tropical Storm Edouard

Tropical Storm Edouard

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Afternoon Showers & Then Cooler

September 13th, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

We had about 1 hour of sunshine this morning before the clouds rolled in. We could see a few more peaks of sunshine before midday, but this afternoon I would count on clouds and rainfall possible.

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Today we will see highs near 80 degrees. For college football fans wanting to support your team tonight, I would bet on rain during parts of the game.

Bring the Poncho

Bring the Poncho

Tomorrow, after the passage of the cold front, we will see temperatures in the lower 70s! That will be one of the coolest dry days we have had in awhile. It will feel like fall with a crisp breeze from the north at 10-15mph. Sunday we should be dry with partly cloudy skies.

Highs will remain in the 70s on Monday with mostly cloudy skies. More rain will come again on Tuesday.

Tropical  & Surf Update:

Tropical Storm Edouard remains as a strong Tropical Storm in the Central Atlantic. The latest update had this storm with 50mph winds.

Swell Coming Wednesday

Swell Coming Wednesday

This storm will stay offshore of the USA. Surfers; we will see a nice swell from this storm coming in Wednesday-Friday next week. This storm is likely going to make the same track that Hurricane Leslie did in 2012. If you remember that storm gave us 3-4ft waves at its peak. The only thing I am concerned about is a northeast wind developing locally which would prevent clean surf. Stay tuned for more updates.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson