Rainy/Stormy Sunday Night

November 22nd, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Weather

It was a cold night for the Grand Illumination in Norfolk and Light Up The Town in Virginia Beach. Check out the view of the lights out of Tower Cam 10 and our Virginia Beach Town Center webcam!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Virginia Beach Town Center

Virginia Beach Town Center

With a mostly clear sky overnight, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning. Sunday will be a day of change across the region. Sunday morning will be cold and dry and Sunday night will be warm and wet. Rain chances go up by the late afternoon, so Sunday will not be a wash-out. Moisture levels will be on the rise tomorrow, so clouds will be increasing throughout the day. It will take a little while to moisten up the atmosphere so rain shouldn’t develop until late in the day. North Carolina and the Southside could see rain anytime after 3 PM. Rain becomes more widespread by the dinner hour. Here is what our Future Trak model shows by 6 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Outer Banks and Mainland Dare County in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Sunday Storm Risk

Sunday Storm Risk

The rest of Virginia and North Carolina could still see isolated thunderstorms, but the chance is higher for stronger storms across the Outer Banks and down through South Carolina and Georgia. The warm front will push through the Outer Banks a little bit earlier in the day, so moisture values will be higher there. Wind shear will be decent, which is when winds change speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. So storms will be able to rotate, that is IF they get going. We will have a lot of clouds most of the day and the sun sets at 4:51 PM. I think there will be a small window for the potential for strong storms across the Outer Banks. Any instability will be going down once the sun sets, which is early now. As the night wears on, the potential for severe weather will go down and the potential for heavy rain will go up as warm, moist air moves into the region. The rain gets even heavier late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Rain should taper off early Monday morning, but it will be a foggy, windy and warm morning with temperatures in the 60s. Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s, so we will be close to record levels once again!

Tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for an updated forecast. Plus Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be on WAVY News 10 from 6-8 AM Sunday morning with an update on the timing of the rain.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


A Developing Drought, Relief Coming

November 22nd, 2014 at 9:23 am by under Weather

November has been a dry month for Hampton Roads. Below are a few rain totals from each area:

  • Southside: 0.75″
  • Peninsula: 0.96″
  • OBX: 0.48″
  • NE NC: 0.87″
  • E. Shore: 1.73″
  • Middle Peninsula: 1.13″

As you see, most areas are still below one inch of rain for November. October was also dry for us, this is helping to form a minor drought for our area.

Drought Update

Drought Update

Being “Abnormally Dry” isn’t a major cause of concern. What is more interesting is to see what happens over the next few weeks. If we stay dry, this winter will be hard on our plants and trees since they will have a lack of moisture.

We could see some rain tomorrow with the arrival of a warm front.

Future Trak Saturday Afternoon

Future Trak Sunday Afternoon

We could see a few scattered showers as early as 3pm tomorrow as warmer temperatures start to move in from the south. More rain is likely into the evening. The storm prediction center has areas in North Carolina in a slight risk for severe weather. Right now it looks like the timing for thunderstorms will be after sunset Sunday. Computer models are giving us around 1 inch of rain.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving and travel around the holiday, another storm system may bring us rain, and give D.C. a chance for snow.

Future Trak Wednesday

Future Trak Wednesday

Future Trak does bring in a chance for a mixture on Wednesday evening. Right now it is still questionable to see if this can happen. The wind would be northeasterly, so with that fetch going over 50 degree water, the snow chances look slim to our north, and especially low for our area.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


The Last Bison’s Gathering

November 21st, 2014 at 10:52 am by under THRS Live Music

LASTBISONGATHERING

It’s the time of year where family and friends get together for a feast, football and good times.  It’s also the time for what’s becoming a new tradition:  The Last Bison’s Gathering.

Now in it’s third year, The Last Bison will takeover The NorVa Saturday, November 29 for an evening of good music and good will.  Presented by 96X, The Gathering is a musical fundraiser for The Foodbank of Southeastern Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore that will feature The Last Bison along with special guests Esbern Snare and Swear and Shake.  Each concert goer should bring a non-perishable food item for The Foodbank.  You can also make a contribution online at this link.  This is an important cause as The Foodbank provides canned, fresh, frozen goods to thousands of individuals and this time is a time when The Foodbank runs low of items in their pantry.  Recently, The Last Bison held a volunteer night there where the band and fans sorted 4000 lbs of food and packaged over 300 backpacks with food to distribute as part of The Foodbank’s BackPack Program.

The Last Bison just got back from their east coast tour in support of their latest record, VA.  The record is simply superb as well as their current live show.  They have added a drum kit and Amos slaps on the electric bass – where it adds a great dynamic to their folkestral tunes of Quill that  we love.  I saw their show in Philadelphia last month and it was nothing short of excellent.  Bottom Line: Go to the show!

Joining them are Esbern Snare, who appeared on Live Music Friday earlier this year and released their debut record, A Violent Peace.  A great band with an intense sound and song craftsmanship that doesn’t leave your head for awhile.  Also joining the bill is New York Americana band,  Swear and Shake.  This band is another great gem with very catchy tunes.  Check out their video below.

This is going to be a great night of music for a great cause.  Like I said before, go the show! You can get your tickets now by clicking on this link.

 


Warmer Weather Will Make A Comeback!

November 21st, 2014 at 8:20 am by under Weather

While we warmed up a bit yesterday, we knew it was temporary.  Highs got into the upper 50s with sunshine and southwest winds.  Today we’re headed back to the cold.  At least for a short stint.

Cold Front In The Region

Cold Front In The Region

A cold front has already cleared the region.  It shifted the winds in the overnight, but there wasn’t any precipitation along the boundary.  Winds will be northwest today behind the front. They will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph.  High pressure is building into the region.  So we’ll have a lot of sunshine.  But it will be cold sunshine.  Highs will only be in the low 40s with some mid 40s over North Carolina.  Tonight as the high builds in stronger, we’ll lighten the winds.  Lows will drop to the 20s with some 30s near the shore.  Then tomorrow we’ll have a light southerly wind.  So highs will rise to the upper 40s. Skies will stay sunny.   We are really going to warm up after that.  On Sunday we’ll see highs in the low 60s.  Rain will move-in, but it may not arrive until the evening.  Then we’ll see scattered rain showers on Monday with highs in the 70s.  There will probably be some thunderstorms near the coast.  Especially over coastal North Carolina.

We won’t cool down much on Tuesday.  We’ll see highs in the 60s with a few more showers.  On Wednesday things could get interesting.  Emphasis on Could.  A colder surge of air is going to move into the region.  Also an upper level disturbance will push into the area.  Some moisture will linger behind a slow moving cold front.  So we could see some cold rain late Wednesday.  Perhaps ending as a brief Wintry mix.  The main part of the upper level disturbance is expected to move through on Thursday….Thanksgiving.  If the moisture is there, then we may see a little wintry mix or maybe even some snowflakes.  At this time it looks like the area will be mostly dry, but some models hint at some pockets of moisture.  This is still far out.  So I’m not putting my stamp on that.

In the Great Lakes area there is a new problem that will be developing.  Warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days.  So all of the snow that is there in western New York could melt soon and cause flooding.  When you have several feet of snow it could potentially melt down to several inches of water.  This will be a developing story into next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Attempting To Warm

November 20th, 2014 at 8:12 am by under Weather

Well… temperatures are trying to warm up.  This morning we were running 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning.  That doesn’t mean that it was a warm start.  It was just much better than yesterday’s teens and 20s.  As we go along today we’ll see a brief warmup.  High temps will rise to the mid 50s with lots of sunshine and southwest winds at 10-15mph.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The average high is 60 degrees for this time of year.  Don’t get too excited though.  Instead of a steady climb into the weekend, we are going to see another quick drop in temperatures.  A cold front will move through tonight.  It will move through dry.  So there won’t be any precipitation with it.  We’ll just see a brief bump in clouds tonight.  Then tomorrow behind the front we’ll have northwest winds at 10-15mph.  This will tap into the Midwest cold pool and let it flow into the Mid-Atlantic.   Highs tomorrow will only be in the low 40s despite mostly sunny skies.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The good news is that this next cold wave is also going to be short-lived.  On Saturday we’ll re-develop southerly winds.  So high temps will climb to near 50.  Then on Sunday we’ll build the temps even more.  So highs will reach the mid 60s.  The models have held the rain back on Sunday.  So now it looks like the rain will wait until Sunday night.  On Monday we’ll see highs in the 70s, but there will be scattered showers.  Thunderstorms???  Possibly.  But hey it’ll be warm.

Meanwhile in other parts of the country, the lake effect snow machine is in full force.  Parts of New York are looking at 9 feet of snow.  9 FEET?  That’s like me standing on my own shoulders.  Which would be a tough feat to accomplish. : )   Seriously though, they are getting hammered with mountains of snow in western New York.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

When cold air blows over warmer water and the conditions are right, then heavy snow can form in bands.  This is know as lake-effect snow.  There has to be some humidity in the atmosphere, but most of the moisture is supplied by the lakes and evaporation.  The water temperatures have to be a set amount warmer than the air above it.  Plus the winds have to have a long enough fetch (length of the winds over the water).   Usually this type of weather pattern happens in the Winter when the lakes have a lot of ice on them.  However, the cold blast happened very early.  So the lakes are mostly ice-free.  Therefore, the lake-effect snow machine is in full force.

The problem is that many people will be trapped in their homes for days due to the heavy snow.  Some have already been trapped for a couple days.  So unfortunately residents of western New York state could be running out of food soon.  Also, if the snow were to rapidly melt, then flooding could be a problem.  this is slowly becoming a major disaster.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


It’s Cold Out There…But The Planet???

November 19th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Welcome to the November ice box.  It is very early in the season to get temperatures like these, but here they are:

Regional Temperatures

Regional Temperatures

We bottomed out around 28 at Norfolk International Airport.  The record there is 25 degrees (1959).  However, we did break a record in Elizabeth City, NC.  It dropped to 20 degrees briefly this morning.  The old record was 21 degrees (1959).  Also Wallops Island broke a record.  The low dropped to 21.  The old record was 25 degrees (2005).  There were many teens and 20s in the region.  High pressure is building into the area.  We have a very dry airmass in place.  So we’ll see a lot of sunshine today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll start with light northwest winds.  We’ll end with light southwest winds.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Tonight the low temps shouldn’t be as cold. Even a light southwest winds sometimes will add a few degrees to the temperatures.  So I’m expecting lows in the low 30s with 20s inland.  We’ll warm up a bit Thursday afternoon, but it won’t be a heat wave.  Highs will be in the low 50s.  Then a cold front will drop temps again on Friday.  Highs will be in the 40s for Friday and Saturday.  We’ll reach the 60s though by Sunday, and we are aiming for 70 by Monday.  The tradeoff is that rain is expected on those days.

Despite this recent cold, there has been a headline that the globe may have just had one of the warmest Octobers on record.  I guess it was warmer over many other parts of the globe, and water temperatures were the main factor.  Here’s an article about the subject.   Warmest October on record?

While many (majority???) scientists believe in Global warming and that humans have had a big part in causing it, farmers mainly have a different opinion.  From a recent study, it seems that the majority of farmers tend to not believe that humans have had a decent factor in Global Warming.  However, many do believe that climate change has occurred.  Here is that article. Scientists, farmers, and Global Warming. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Record Lows Possible Overnight

November 18th, 2014 at 6:40 pm by under Weather

It felt more like winter today with afternoon temperatures in the 30s and 40s! We are not the only ones seeing the cold weather. Most of the country is dealing with unseasonably cold weather. Here is a map of the low temperatures recorded this morning across the country. All areas above the pink line saw temperatures below freezing this morning. This was the coldest morning across the U.S. (Lower 48)  since November of 1976, which was 38 years ago!

COLD Morning Nationwide

COLD Morning Nationwide

We were above freezing in Hampton Roads this morning thanks to the strong wind. But temperatures are going to drop WELL BELOW freezing tonight, and the record low at Norfolk Airport could be in jeopardy. The high level clouds will clear out and wind speeds will come down allowing temperatures to plummet. We are forecasting lows to drop into the low to mid 20s with teens possible for inland locations. The record low temperature at Norfolk Airport is 25° set back in 1959.  Here are the forecast lows.

Metro Forecast Lows

Metro Forecast Lows

Low Temperatures

Low Temperatures

Make sure you are prepared for the winter-like temperatures overnight:

  • Bring the pets inside
  • Make sure your heater is working
  • Check on family, friends and the elderly
  • If you live in a rural/inland location where temperatures drop into the teens, it may be a good idea to drip the faucets
  • Make sure the kids are bundled up as they head to the bus stop tomorrow morning.
  • Dress in layers and cover exposed skin (gloves, scarves, hats)

Luckily Hampton Roads doesn’t look like THIS! This is a picture of the lake effect snow coming down in Buffalo. Picture credit goes to NBC News.

Snow in Buffalo, NY

Snow in Buffalo, NY

Some areas near Buffalo have already seen 51 inches of snow and more is on the way. Some places could see 5-6 feet of snow before all is said and done.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Cold Air Pours Into Hampton Roads

November 18th, 2014 at 8:07 am by under Weather

It felt like Spring for a bit yesterday with the warm/humid conditions around.  We even had a couple of waterspouts pop out of some thunderstorms (Severe Blog).  Then… as advertised…yesterday’s warmth was replaced by a much colder air mass.   During yesterday afternoon temperatures rose to the low 70s across most of the region.  Then the front came through, and we’ve been dropping ever since.  Here is a good example.  Look at Suffolk’s temperatures for the past 14 hours:

Suffolk Temperatures

Suffolk Temperatures

Many temperatures this morning were in the 30s.  Winds were from the northwest at 10-15mph.  This allowed the cold air to pour into the region.

Regional Temperatures

Regional Temperatures

Wind chills were even in the 20s in several cites.  As high pressure builds in today, the winds will stay up out of the northwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see mostly to partly sunny skies and highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s this afternoon.  Technically we already hit the highs for the day right after midnight, but the afternoon temps will be cold.  Tonight skies will clear and winds will lighten up.  Temps will be dropping into the mid-upper 20s with a few teens inland.  If you are in some rural/inland locations, then you may want to drip the faucets tonight. It’s waayyy too early to be doing it, but hey.

Forecast Low Temps

Forecast Low Temps

Tomorrow we’ll have sunshine, but temps won’t climb much.  We’ll top out near 40 degrees.  We’ll warm up a bit on Thursday (low 50s).  Then another cold front will move through and drop us to the 40s on Friday.  We’ll get back to some 60s by Sunday, but rain showers will move into the region.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Waterspouts Reported, Severe Threat Winding Down

November 17th, 2014 at 6:34 pm by under Weather

It was a busy afternoon in the Super Doppler 10 Weather Center. We only saw a couple of storms, but one of them did produce a waterspout. Don and I were watching this one storm rapidly develop over Norfolk just before 4 PM. We noticed it was showing signs of broad rotation. We did have plenty of shear in the atmosphere. The storm really strengthened over the Chesapeake Bay. The Department of Highways at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel reported 2 waterspouts near the First Island at 4:08 PM. This is what the radar looked like at that time. Notice the notch just to the north of the Norfolk label. This is likely where the waterspout developed.

4:10 PM Radar Image - Waterspout

4:10 PM Radar Image – Waterspout Developing

Dustin Wyatt sent this picture to reportit@wavy.com of the waterspout while traveling on the CBBT.

Waterspout

Waterspout

Dawn sent in a picture of hail just east of NAS Norfolk. This hail came from the same storm that produced the waterspout over the Chesapeake Bay.

Hail

Hail

The tornado watch that was issued for North Carolina has expired and the severe weather threat is winding down. The sun has set, so we are losing any instability that we had earlier this evening. However, rain is still possible for the next few hours. Our latest Future Trak model is doing a good job with the rain out there now, so I trust its solution. Here is what we can expect at 8 PM. Heaviest rain is offshore, but a few light showers are still possible.

Future Trak at 8 PM

Future Trak at 8 PM

All the rain should come to an end before midnight. Then the COLD air arrives! Temperatures will drop into the lower 30s by Tuesday morning and highs will only rise into the upper 30s by the afternoon.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

That is about 30-35 degrees colder than the 70s we saw today. Winds will be strong out of the northwest at 10-20mph, so it will feel even colder. Near record lows will be possible Wednesday morning as lows drop into the lower 20s with teens inland. Record low for Norfolk Airport is 25° set back in 1959. Stay warm everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Severe Potential On This Monday

November 17th, 2014 at 12:39 pm by under Weather

We have had some clearing over the region, and this has increased the instability.  The models had some clearing earlier this morning, but not this much.  Temps are already warming to the 70s from northeast North Carolina up to the Southside.

Visible Satellite

Visible Satellite

I looked at the parameters for severe weather.   Nothing is off the charts, but there is a decent amount of helicity (spin with height) in the atmosphere.  Instability (storm potential) is increasing with the sunshine, and the upper level wind support (wind shear) is also decent.  So we’ll be on the lookout for some isolated severe weather this afternoon into the evening.

There were some heavy rain showers around midday, but there actually weren’t too many thunderstorms.  The storms are likely to increase in coverage through the afternoon into the early evening hours.  Here’s what I have for the rain chances for the rest of the day:

Rain Chances

Rain Chances

There is a wider area of rain to our west.  As that gets closer then it should put a cap on temperatures.

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

The cold front is expected this evening between 5 and 8 pm.  We’ll see a line of showers and gusty winds during that time. Winds will turn from the south to out of the northwest as the front moves through.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

Then the cold air arrives.  We’ll clear out by midnight.  Then temps will drop to the upper 30s.  Despite sunshine tomorrow we’ll only rise a couple of degrees during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40.  I have more on the cold weather in the previous blog.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler