We had a lot of snow reports come in.  Here is a rough map of the totals:

Snow Totals

Accident in the snow

Here are some more scenic photos from around the area.  This one was sent in by Tracie Cimaglio in Newport News Park:

Newport News park

This next photo is from Hall Road in Hampton.  Check out the deer.  You can actually see their eyes.  Katherine Kearney took the pic:

Deer In snow

Finally, this last photo was a geat shot of the Coleman Bridge up in Gloucester Point.  Thanks Rusty West. 

Coleman Bridge

We’ll have a lot of sunshine today.  High temperatures will only be in the lower 30s though.  Winds NW 10-20mph.  The sun should melt some of the ice on the roads.  Overall, roads should be good tonight as you head to the Super Bowl parties.  The exception will be the cities north of the metro that got over 3″ of snow. 

Tonight temps will drop down to the low 20s with teens inland.  Dry with upper 30s tomorrow.  Rain will move in late Tuesday.  We could see a little snow mix in in some northern sections early Wednesday, but I’m not too concerned about it at this time. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We’re almost done with the snow.  Here was the view from Super Doppler 10 at a little after 6pm.

Super Doppler 10

Snow 2010 Croaker, VA

This next one was from Metompkin Bay near Parksley on the Eastern Shore:

Snow 2010 Near Parksley

This was sent in by Robert Coniglio. 

Finally, this last photo was from the Gloucester area.  Thanks Melinda Dunlap:

Snow 2010 Gloucester

Tomorrow highs will be in the lower 30s.  There should be sunshine. So that will melt some of the snow/ice.  Especially where only light amounts of snow fell today.  Roads should be ok overall for travelling to Super Bowl events tomorrow night.  However, there will be some areas north of the metro that will still have snow on the secondaries.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Here’s the afternoon update.  It’s really coming down in Portsmouth at the TV station.  A lot of areas had pockets of moderate to heavy snow.  It was just starting to stick on the southside.   A viewer from Yorktown said it is starting to stick to the roads.  Temperatures are in the lower 30s, but a lot of the temps just got to the freezing mark.  As I mentioned in a previous blog there was a lot of water on the ground, and it is tough for the snow to stick on that.  Here was a snapshot of Super Doppler 10 from about 1:30pm:

Super Doppler 10 1:30pm

An unusually strong upper level low pressure system in the jet stream level (around 20,000 feet) is the key to how much snow you get in your city.  The rule of thumb is rather simple for meteorologists.  The accumulating snow occurs along and north of the upper level low vorticity max.  This system is easily seen on current satellite images and is better seen on what we call “water vapor” loops.

The forecast is for this low to drop down from southwest VA toward Raleigh and then across Northeastern N.C. to a location near Knotts Island late today.  So draw a line from those locations northward and that’s where the snow will fall and stick.  The second rule to remember is the heaviest snows usually occur 40-100 miles north of the upper low track.  So I am expecting 1-3″ on the southside, 2-4 inches on the peninsula, 3-7 inches middle peninsula, northern neck and the northern part of the Eastern Shore.  Carolina will receive lesser amounts with little or none on the Outer Banks.

If the track of that low shifts even a bit…that can alter snowfall amounts and drastically impact travel for the better or worse depending on your location.  At this point it would be safe if everybody was home by 10-11am on the peninsula and 11am-12pm on the southside.

Meteorologist Jon Cash

I’m taking just a few minutes before leaving the building for the night. I don’t expect anything too terribly substantial or threatening during the overnight hours. Bigger stuff arrives for Saturday…another long day ahead!

At this hour, widespread moderate rain continues to fall through the region. There are pockets of much heavier rain moving rapidly northeastward through NE North Carolina and through the South Side Cities. This steady moderate to heavy rain should taper off to scattered lighter rain showers by at least around 3:00 AM…if not before.

Wind has increased from the East at 15-25 mph…with occasional gusts to over 40 mph. The wind will generally continue through the overnight hours, but should drop off temporarily for a while near dawn.

Minor tidal flooding can be expected at the time of high tide overnight between 2:00 and 4:00 AM. Minor to even moderate tidal flooding can be expected from 2:00 to 4:00 PM, Saturday.

On Saturday morning, we’re likely to start the day well above freezing…even in the 40s to mid 50s in the Hampton Roads cities southward. As the storm moves off shore, we’re likely to see more of a northerly wind drop colder air our way by around noon (sooner north of Williamsburg). Temperatures will likely drop by 10 or 15 degrees within an hour or so. That colder air borne by strong northerly winds will also bring a return of snow into the region by around noon. Before it tapers off in the evening, expect a dusting in NE North Carolina, 1″-3″ across most of the Hampton Roads cities, 3″-4″ from around Denbigh in Newport News northward through Williamsburg, 4″-6″ for the Middle Peninsula and Accomack Cty. on the Eastern Shore…and by far the greatest amount for Virginia’s Northern Neck (6″-12″).

I mentioned the strong northerly winds for Saturday afternoon. By around 3:00 PM, we could see steady winds of 35-45 mph with gusts to near 60 near the Ocean and Bay! Remember that this will roughly coincide with the time of high tide, too! Winds should slowly taper off during the evening hours.

Whoa-kay. That’s it for now. Another Saturday, another big storm! Look for Jon Cash on WAVY News 10 at sunrise. Jeremy Wheeler will be along to help cover things through the late morning into the dinner hour. And of course, I’ll be on the job throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Whew!

Rain should taper off in the next hour or so. Then a big weather day Saturday!

-Don

Interesting… The temperatures have come up to the lower 40s tonight with the strong easterly winds blowing off of the ocean.  I talked a lot about the flooding recently.  It’s only 9:00 and my backyard is a pool already.  We still have the overnight to go.  Radar estimates aren’t that impressive.  They show about a half inch to an inch of rain so far.  It will add up tonight though.  Jon Cash is in for the morning show tomorrow.  He’ll do a blog update then probably.  Our model was showing some let-up in the morning.  Will that let the water go down?  Will that let the sun pop out?  Why am I asking rhetorical questions?  Tough to say.  But don’t be surprised if you wake up to very windy conditions.  See the previous blogs for a lot more detail on this system.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

(Update….Rather than start a new blog, I thought I’d update this one.  Winter Storm Warning now for the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Accomack county.  Winter Weather Advisory for the Peninsula, Southside, and Northampton county, VA.  High Wind warning for coastal areas for wind gusts between 50-60mph.  Rain has taken over most of the metro and the rain/snow line is now moving through the Middle Peninsula. Here’s the latest snow estimates for tomorrow:  dusting to 1 inch North Carolina, 1-3″ southside, 1-3″ peninsula, 2-5″ williamsburg, 2-5″ Middle Peninsula, 1-3″ lower Eastern Shore, 2-5″ Accomack, 6-10″ Northern Neck. Again, see below for snow accumulations versus standing water)

Here’s the previous discussion:

You are not dreaming or seeing things.  There is still some snow in the area.  We did get quite a few reports of snow between noon and 3pm.  We had some evaporative cooling happening and that created some pockets of snow and mix this early afternoon.  As the precipitation falls it cools due to evaporation (with the right conditions).  Snow forms and lasts until the air is saturated (totally moist).  The rain/snow line is pushing northward though.  Slowly!  I am very confident that this will all be rain by tonight.  The exception is up towards Richmond and the Northern Neck.  They could stay a rain/snow mix tonight.  Here’s the forecast map.  Pink is a rain/snow mix.

Tonight's Forecast

Tomorrow's Forecast

 Snow showers will increase thorugh Saturday evening and then taper off before midnight.  Here is the snow totals map that I used at midday:

Snow Forecast

Expect a dusting up to 2″ in the non colored area.  Here’s the thing about this map…  I mentioned on a previous blog that if there is standing water everywhere, then it will be very tough for the snow to stick to the ground.  So I think a lot of this snow will fall out of the sky, but will melt.  If the cold air can move down quicker, then the top layer of water can freeze.  Then we can see those numbers on the ground.  For now I’m leaning towards the lower numbers in the range.  It’s interesting that the NAM is showing more snow for the area. (5″ for Norfolk with a 10-1 ratio), but our Futuretrak is showing much lower amounts.  (About 1.5″ for Norfolk).  Our model is very high resolution and is probably doing a better job with the temperatures. We’ll see.   It really did a good job during the last storm.  Here is a snapshot of Futuretrak at 3:00pm tomorrow:

Future Trak Tomorrow

This was the overnight run.  Don Slater will have the updated morning version tonight at 5:00pm.  It is looking like it has a good handle on the rain/snow.  The heaviest snow by far is forecast to fall from Richmond to the Northern Neck up to Washington D.C.  Some forecasters are calling for 20inches of snow there.  Looking at the latest radar, I can believe it.  This will shut down some of the North Virginia Cities for a couple of days.   Keep that in mind if you are travelling.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

18-30 inches of snow for northern and western Virginia…very similar to the December storm that shut down Washington, D.C.

Here in Hampton Roads the rain/snow line will be hovering over the region this morning….so rain and or snow expected during the morning Friday before warmer Atlantic Ocean air pushes from the southeast.  With all the snow melt from the past storm and 1-3 inches of rain late today and tonight, localized urban flooding is a sure bet for some.  The air pressure will bottom out around 984 mb with this low as it moves off our coast.  That is the normal air pressure of a Cat. I or Cat. II hurricane.  Winds will gust to 50 mph along the coast tonight and tomorrow morning and could easily gust to hurricane strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Colder air will rapidly wrap around the low tomorrow morning leading to the rain quickly changing to snow early to mid morning on the peninsula and mid to late morning on the southside.  The models are spitting out between .30″ and .50″ water content after the changeover.  Using a ten to one ratio that would mean 3-5 inches of snow…more snow as you go north and less as you head south.

On the roads…heavy rain will freeze on the roads tomorrow with several inches of snowfall on top of that making driving very hazardous.  With temps in the 20’s late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, that ice and snow will be on the roads Sunday!

Meteorologist Jon Cash

This storm will likely be quite a bit different from last Saturday’s storm. Expect more of a rainy Nor’Easter…ending with some (mostly) minor amounts of snow Saturday afternoon and evening.

So far, it looks like we’ll see some light rain begin in the area from south to north during the afternoon hours. By the evening, rain becomes moderate to heavy. Winds also increase out of the East at 15-20 mph. There could be a mix of rain and snow farther north for Virginia’s northern Neck. That overnight heavy rain tapers off by around 4:00 AM Saturday. But we could see 1″-2″ (possibly 3″!) on already saturated soil.

Additionally, the wind is expected to increase out of the Northeast at 30 to 35 mph. That persistent wind is likely to bring up the tides to moderate flooding levels on Saturday afternoon.

Saturday during the daylight hours, we’ll see scattered light rain change over to snow pretty early (8:00-9:00 AM) for the Northern Neck. Then southward from there, light rain changes to snow at noontime or so in the Hampton Roads cities. Light rain doesn’t change over to light snow until sunset over northeast North Carolina.

Accumulations are likely to be fairly light over the Hampton Roads cities…from around .5″ up to around 2″. Greater amounts are likely from Williamsburg northward (2″-4″). Then amounts really pick up northwest of Virginia’s Northern Neck (the Washington area could see 20″!).

These amounts are highly subject to change. The computer forecast models tend to shift the bands of heaviest snow northward or southward slightly. The amounts listed above for Hampton Roads could be raised or lowered slightly. But chances are…the biggest snowfalls should remain to the north and northwest.

Stay tuned!

You’re all going to have to pardon me.  I’m working from home (on my day off), so I can’t do a high quality blog like I’d like to do.  The bottom line…this weekend is just going to be a mess.  We have a Flood Watch up for most of the viewing area.  We have Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal flooding on Saturday.  There is a Winter Storm Watch up for the Northern Neck and Middlesex county.  That could shift over to Accomack county, but we’ll see. 

A large area of low pressure is expected to move through the region.  It will turn into a classical Nor’easter with about 998mb of pressure.  (A fairly strong low pressure system). 

Snow:  We could start out with a little rain/snow mix tomorrow morning as the moisture moves into a fairly cold airmass.  As the day moves on though, the warmer south/southeast winds will push the rain snow line way north. The rain that falls will melt just about anything that is on the ground.  Saturday afternoon the rain/snow line will begin to push back southward.  This will let snow move back into Hampton Roads.  The amount of moisture that hangs back behind the low will determine how much snow gets into the metro area.  Another factor as to how much snow will actually be on the ground is the standing water.  I’m expecting widespread flooded back yards and a lot of streets could be flooded.  As the snow falls on this, it will be tough to stick.  If the cold air can come down before the snow really gets going, then it’s possible to turn some of that into ice.  Then the snow can stick.  Any salt on the roads that is put out tonight has a chance to get washed away.  I saw Don Slater’s evening forecast for amounts.  He’s generally calling for a gradual increase of snow from southeast to northwest.  Flurries for the Outer Banks, northeast North Carolina,  and the southside.  Possibly an inch or two across parts of the southside (mainly inland).  About 1-3″ for the Peninsula.  Williamsburg was in his 4-6″ with higher amounts towards Richmond.  The Middle Peninsula could see about 2-5″, but the Northern Neck could see up to 10″.  Possibly more.  The Eastern Shore will also see an increase from south to north.  Cape Charles in the 1-2″ range.  Chincoteague in the 5-9″ range.  So the problem is that the models are spitting out some amounts, but it will be hard for that to stick as water will cover a lot of the ground.  They are talking about over 15″ in some areas around Washington D.C. up to Baltimore.  If you have travel plans for Saturday, then you may have to have a backup plan. 

Flooding/Rain:  We could see 1-3″ of rain before this system departs. 

HPC Estimated Rainfall

This is the latest rainfall forecast from HPC.   With the rain that we’ve already seen, that is why the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch.  This will create a lot of minor flooding in the area as the water is running out of places for it to go.  Especially with possible tidal flooding….

Tidal Flooding:  The forecast for Saturday at Sewell’s Point is about 5.5 feet.  This means that the tides are expected to run about 2-3feet above normal.  That will be around 3 pm in the afternoon at the highest.  The Nor’easter of 09′ got up to about 7.3ft.  So minor to moderate tidal flooding is forecast.  After the big Nor’easter in 09′, we had another smaller one that caused some tidal flooding.  I have the records up at work, but I think it was in December.  I think we’ll see similar tidal flooding compared to that.   (See older blogs)

Wind: Winds will gust between 40-50mph.  It is why we are expecting tidal flooding.  We could some power outages, but they usually aren’t widespread until you get winds gusting between 50-60mph. 

No matter what happens, this will be a mess of a system.  A lot of people may not want the Snow Hope Index up this time.  Think about how many Super Bowl parties would have to be cancelled on Sunday if there was a lot of snow on the ground! Oh boy!  At least the weather will be much quieter on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler